The Detroit Tigers (+125) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Tigers are 70-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 71-70 ATS.

Tigers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 2-6, 4.24 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 4-5, 4.66 ERA

Tigers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Tigers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:

• Kerry Carpenter has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+15.90 Units / 88% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 32 games (+33.80 Units / 106% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)

Tigers Best Bets Today:

• The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 53 games (+18.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 55 games (+12.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 away games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 64 games (+17.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 109 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 74-66 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 0.64% ROI).

• 70-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.31% ROI
• 69-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI
• 63-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.95 Units / -8.57% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 71-70 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 1.8% ROI).

• 80-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 2.94% ROI
• 77-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.25 Units / 6% ROI
• 62-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.5 Units / -15.03% ROI

Padres vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 31% (62 SO in 202 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 12% (11 SO in 95 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .341 (15-for-44) against Casey Mize on low fastballs this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 13th Percentile.

Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 23% (25 SO in 110 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 10th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.103 (112 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .754 — 0 Percentile.

Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .692 (72 Total Bases / 104 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.

Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (876/1,815) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .375 (39-for-104) against Martin Perez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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