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The Detroit Tigers are one win away from a big upset in their Wild Card series against the Houston Astros, as they look to complete the two-game sweep at Minute Maid Park this afternoon.
- Detroit kickstarted the profitable day for underdogs yesterday with its Game 1 victory
- Tarik Skubal became the second Tigers pitcher to throw six or more scoreless innings and allow two or fewer walks in a postseason game
- The Astros need a win to have a chance of advancing to an eighth straight ALCS
Our Game 1 picks went 2-0 with plus-money cashes on the Tigers moneyline and Skubal to allow Under 4.5 hits.
We look to keep the momentum going with our Tigers vs. Astros prediction for Game 2 of the Wild Card series, with first pitch scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Tigers vs. Astros predictions: Game 2
- Moneyline pick: Tigers (+146 via FanDuel) ???
- Hunter Brown player prop bet: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-122 via FanDuel) ????
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Visitor vs. Host?
First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET, Minute Maid Park
Best odds: +146 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.65%
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Our Game 1 prediction was all about Skubal and his ability to limit the Astros' offense. Manager A.J. Hinch knows he does not have another starting pitcher close to the caliber of the prohibitive Cy Young odds favorite and feels his best chance to end the series now is with a bullpen game. That is a sound strategy, as the Tigers bullpen finished the last month of the regular season with a 3.72 xFIP, a 21.9% strikeout rate, and a 6.1% walk rate.
Hinch's experience managing the Astros' core (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, etc.) cannot be understated. He has the best scouting report possible on them, having managed them for five years and led them to the 2017 World Series.
Houston missed a golden opportunity to take control of this series after facing a southpaw in Game 1. It ranked fourth in wRC+ against southpaws over the second half of the season, compared to the Tigers' 26th. However, the gap was not as wi de when facing right-handed pitching, as Detroit finished 18th while Houston ranked 10th, and that gives me confidence that the Tigers can get to Astros righty Hunter Brown.
With several of our best sports betting apps offering +140 odds to back the underdogs, I am taking advantage of the better value at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would net $14.60 in profits.
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Brown's 9.5 K/9 rate this season was his worst in his short three-year career. He has stayed under this projected total in five of his last seven starts and six of nine since the calendar turned to August.
Brown has thrown five fewer innings this year than in his previous sea sons combined, so it is fair to wonder if fatigue will start setting in. In addition, Houston will likely employ an “all hands on deck” mentality facing elimination.
Considering the more veteran Framber Valdez was removed after just 78 pitches yesterday, I expect five innings to be Brown's ceiling, and for him to be yanked at the first sign of trouble.
Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%
Tigers vs. Astros odds & game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 2
- First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
- How to watch: ABC
- Favorite: Astros (-165 via BetMGM)
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