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The Detroit Tigers overcame long preseason odds to clinch a playoff spot, and they look to start strong in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series against the Houston Astros.
- Detroit has been one of the best teams in baseball for the last couple of months
- One of the Astros' best sluggers is dealing with an injury
- Houston is looking to get back to the ALCS or beyond for the eighth consecutive year
Our Tigers vs. Astros prediction makes the case for the Tigers, the road underdogs at our best MLB betting sites and comparative World Series odds long shots, to steal Game 1 behind the likely AL Cy Young Award winner.
Tigers vs. Astros predictions: Game 1
- Moneyline pick: Tigers (+120 via BetMGM)
- Tarik Skubal player prop bet: Under 4.5 hits allowed (+112 via Caesars)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Tigers vs. Astros?
First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET, Minute Maid Park
Best odds: +120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 45.45%
As surprising as it is that Detroit made the postseason, it should not be this big of an underdog with Tarik Skubal on the mound.
Skubal became the third Tigers pitcher to win the AL Pitching Triple Crown, finishing with a league-best 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and a 2.39 ERA. Detroit is 7-2 in Skubal's last nine starts with a +29 run differential in that span and is 4-2 in his previous six starts against teams in this year's playoff field.
Houston's lineup is potentially facing a massive void with Yordan Alvarez missing the final week of the regular season with a knee sprain.
Considering Alvarez is s lashing .362/.411/.617 against southpaws this season, his absence would make the Astros lineup much less intimidating.
This is a matchup of the two best teams in the AL since Aug. 10, but Detroit has MLB's best record in that span (its 31-13 record was 4.5 games better than Houston's), and the Tigers were nine games over .500 (21-12) against left-handed starting pitchers this season.
bet365 offers a price as low as +115 to back the underdogs, so I am taking advantage of the extra value at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would bet $12 in profits.
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Skubal has a 2.90 ERA and 0.953 WHIP when pitching on six-plus days of rest, compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.016 WHIP on regular rest.
The lefty has allowed four or fewer hits in seven of his previous nine starts, and while his two strikeouts in a road June start against Houston is concerning, that is mitigated by his career-best 34% hard-hit rate allowed, and the best BABIP (.273) since his rookie year.
Caesars is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering a price better than +110 to back the Under. I am placing my $10 wager there, hoping for a $21.20 payout.
Best odds: +112 via Caesars | Implied probability: 47.17%
Tigers vs. Astros odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
- First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Minute Maid Park (Houston)
- How to watch: ABC
- Favorite: Astros (-135 via BetMGM)
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