If you’re looking to add some extra value to your Thursday card, look no further than these two strikeout props. Both show +EV value based on our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
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| Astros @ Angels | |
| First Pitch | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Reid Detmers is not the type of pitcher I like to back. He’s had success at the Triple-A level but has yet to establish himself at the MLB level outside of a miraculous no-hitter back in early May.
However, I think Detmers shows upside today.
Detmers has only struck out about 7.2 batters per nine innings this season, but projections have him beating that number substantially by the season’s end. ZiPS projections have Detmers finishing the year with as high as 9.5 K/9.
And he might be tapping into that potential. Detmers has soared over this 3.5 mark in three straight starts, recording 19 strikeouts over his last 14 2/3 innings. That’s good for an 11.7 K/9, although in a small sample size.
Detmers’ underlying strikeout numbers have jumped during the stretch as well, with him recording at least a 27% CSW rate in each of those starts. And it hasn’t been against pushover offenses, as he’s faced the stacked Dodgers, the disciplined Royals and the red-hot Orioles.
While the Astros are arguably the most disciplined lineup in baseball, they look slightly vulnerable at the moment. Their strikeout rate against southpaws is up over 2% during the last month and their walk rate is down slightly.
Plus, Detmers has faired decently against Houston in the past. He only recorded three strikeouts in a start earlier this season, but that was on just 75 pitches. Detmers punched out six Astros in a start last season on 87 pitches. He recorded a 28% CSW rate in both outings.