Two teams with opposite trajectories square off Monday when the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to face the Los Angeles Lakers, and our Thunder vs. Lakers NBA player props based on the best NBA odds expect OKC's best player to shine in the nightcap.
When the season started, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone who expected the Oklahoma City Thunder (27-11) to hold the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference ahead of Monday's clash with the struggling Los Angeles Lakers (19-21).
Alas, the Lakers have plummeted to the 11th in the conference after falling below .500 just weeks removed from winning the NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament. They'll need a big showing from their two key stars, who are questionable heading into Monday's nightcap.
In addition to our NBA player props and best bets for Monday, here are our best Th under vs. Lakers NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thunder vs. Lakers NBA player props
Gilgeous-Alexander has been on an absolute scoring tear in January, averaging 33 points on 61.2% shooting to establish himself as a clear threat in the NBA MVP odds. That said, his points total is trading as high as 32.5 across our best sportsbooks, which feels a tick too high for the Thunder star.
Instead, I'm targeting this wager on his made threes, which is curiously priced considering the matchup and SGA's shooting prowess of late.
While the 25-year-old star has made his name as a relentless scorer inside the arc, he's still hit multiple threes in five of his first seven games of 2024 while shooting a stellar 42.9% from deep to open the calendar year. He's also attempting four triples per game this month – a notable bump from his 3.4 attempts p er game in his first 30 games of the season.
He'll have plenty of chances to cash this wager against the Lakers, who have struggled mightily to defend the perimeter this season. Not only does Los Angeles rank 20th in opponent 3-point percentage (37.8%) – a stat that can often be noisy in small samples – but it also ranks 26th in opponent 3-point attempts per game (37.7), which is a much more stable indicator of 3-point defense.
On top of all that, we're getting tremendous market outlier value at BetRivers on a prop dealing at shorter than +120 odds at four of our best sports betting sites. I rarely label a daily NBA prop with a five-star endorsement, but this one checks all the boxes for me.
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Our own NBA expe rt Zachary Hanshew highlighted this prop in his NBA player props and best bets for Monday, and I like it for many of the same reasons.
Davis has only cleared this mark in one of his last five games, but he pulled down 15 boards on Saturday and has finished with 13-plus rebounds in half of his 38 starts this season. He's also averaging 13.2 rebounds in his last five games against the Thunder, with at least 14 boards in three of them.
Ultimately, that matchup is why this prop is juiced to the Over, even with Davis' recent lull on the glass. The Thunder rank 28th in total rebound rate (47.5%) with bottom-three marks on the offensive and defensive end, and they start with just one player (Chet Holmgren) standing over 6-foot-8.
If Davis plays – which isn't a certainty – he's got a chance to gobble up rebounds in this one, which is why the Over is trading as short as -135 across our best sports betti ng sites. This price is still a bit short for my taste, hence the three-star endorsement, but it's got a great chance to cash.
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The props market is fairly limited for this game because of the injury concerns on both sides. Because of that, we're double-dipping on SGA props with a bet that actually has some sneaky value because of those very injuries.
As we mentioned before, Gilgeous-Alexander has been on a heater as of late, averaging 33 points in January after his 37-point outburst on Saturday against the Orlando Magic. I wouldn't be totally shocked if he matches (or surpasses) that against the Lakers, who rank 22nd in defensive rating (118.8) since winning the In-Season Tournament.
While I don't love betting the heavily juiced Over on SGA's sky-high p oints total, it's worth noting that the total is 3-4 points higher than anyone else's across our best sports betting apps. The only two players threatening in this market are Davis and LeBron James – both of whom are questionable to suit up for Monday's tilt.
I'd expect both to play, as I do with Gilgeous-Alexander (knee), but this price won't last long if either is ruled out. Even if everyone plays, SGA still has a fairly safe floor – he's scored at least 24 points in 19 consecutive games, and he's cleared 30 points in 16 of those contests. For comparison, James and Davis combined for 23 points in their last game together.
This bet is only offered at FanDuel and it's priced at minus-money, two reasons why it earns just three stars' worth of confidence. That said, it's still worth a wager and feels like a smarter play than trying to chase SGA's inflated scoring total.
Thunder-Lakers NBA player props made Monday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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