Extreme weather events like what we’re seeing in Buffalo are going to grab a lot of headlines, but checking the forecast is essential at this time of the season. There will be a lot of cold weather and windy conditions the rest of the way and those elements are going to dictate gameplans, play selection and even player usage. You can find some good prop betting value as a result.
Think about what happens with warm-weather teams coming north, cold-weather teams coming south, quarterbacks with limited experience in adverse weather and all of the other factors that come into play with a game script and you should find some strong positions to take.
Here are three prop bets to consider for Week 11:
The Giants are only a field goal favorite against the Lions, but I like New York this week and feel like they match up really well in this game. My handicap is that they’re going to be able to play from in front and that means utilizing Barkley as a runner, like they’ve done in games with leads throughout the course of the season. Barkley is the league’s leading rusher in yards and yards per game and I expect to see the Giants handing the ball off to him, rather than using him as a pass catcher.
Barkley has only gone over this number in one of his last four games and two of his last six games because the Giants have preferred to give him touches as a runner. He ran 35 times last week in 55 snaps and only had one target and one reception for eight yards. Against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in Rush EPA against and 27th in Rush Success Rate against, Barkley should be in the backfield getting the ball going downhill a lot in this game.