Three college football stability plays for Week 0

Hopefully, you were one of the many readers of the 2022 College Football Betting Guide, or alternatively, have been a VSiN subscriber for a while now. If so, you’re probably familiar with my methodology for college football Stability Scores heading into each season. If not, in a nutshell, these scores provide a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability compared with how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies I employ every year to find value early. The thought is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early while those that have undergone a lot of change should be faded. 

The logic is fundamentally sound. Returning fewer starters, starting over at quarterback and welcoming in new head coaches or coordinators are hurdles for teams to get over. Eventually, the teams may overcome these hurdles, but it usually doesn’t happen early, and oddsmakers don’t account for these factors enough in setting their lines. The recent surge of the transfer portal has only added to the instability. For the record, I consider a transfer quarterback who is expected to start for his team as a new quarterback, regardless of his starting experience. For 2022, there are numerous recognizable QBs who have found new starting homes. 

Being an analytics guy and always looking for quantitative advantages in betting, I like to conduct an exercise that quantifies the level of stability for each program. I figure that the higher level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot this stability. Again, for the point spread, the feeling is that oddsmakers don’t adjust enough for the instability.

Over the last 11 years or so, I have implemented an early-season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings in matchups against those in the most unstable situations. I can tell you that in those 11 years I have never experienced a losing record by playing the games on the lists in the first four weeks of the season. The degree of success has varied during that span, but in all 11 years I have closed with a profit. Of course, these numbers can be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies or by more closely examining the individual factors of instability, but as a stand-alone strategy, the success level is tough to beat.
  
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