Here's a bit of research I did on behalf of all the NFL bettors out there, grinding their way through all that NFL odds history during this offseason.
There are plenty of elegantly elaborate betting systems that can identify and isolate profitable betting spots. Here's one that's perfectly uncomplicated.
Most Overrated NFL Teams To Bet On
There are thousands of ways to sort NFL teams based on various systems of broad categorization, statistical analysis, and analytics. That makes it hard to assign a definitive title like “most overrated” to just one specific scenario.
There is one easy situation that even novice bettors can understand, though: home teams.
From an early age, sports fans are groomed to believe in the mythical powers of home-field advantage. Even winning handicappers can see a raucous home crowd and buy into the hype, especially after a false start penalty or two.
But overall, that data is pretty clear about the waning influence of the so-called home-field advantage in the NFL.'
If you bet every home team against the spread over the last five NFL, you'd have lost money every season. Per Bet Labs, NFL home teams are 602-663-27 ATS in the regular season, dating back to the start of the 2018 season. That's good for a -7.6% ROI.