I love bowl season in college football! It is wonderful to have games on all days of the week at random times and be able to have action on a Tuesday at Noon! However, betting bowls have changed drastically in the last three years. Between the transfer portal and opt-outs for the NFL draft, the handicapping of games and my timing of bets has adjusted.
Prior to the changes, handicapping motivation and conference edges were the key to success. You would consistently see teams laying big numbers that just were not interested in playing an extra game and conferences that rose to the top and dominated bowls. I do believe there is still some value in both of those angles, but with the changes in the landscape of college football, you must be more careful relying on those angles. The conference angle specifically is one that I weigh less now. Look at the Pac-12, for example. You are losing at least four starting quarterbacks from those teams alone. That will dramatically change the look of the teams and the expected results.
There are two key times to be betting the bowl season at this point. The first was last Saturday when you could predict opt-outs, like Caleb Williams for USC and Marvin Harrison Jr. for Ohio State, and try to get in front of line movements. Missouri versus Ohio State is a great example of that.
On The Handle last Saturday, we talked about Missouri at +6.5 right when the line was released and the likelihood of that game being very different teams than what we saw on the field during the year. Missouri was unlikely to have any opt-outs or players entering the transfer portal while Ohio State was likely going to lose their top two wide receivers, multiple defensive players and have some drama at the head coaching spot. Their starting quarterback heading into the portal was a surprise, but everything else was not. Now Missouri is lined at a 3-point favorite in the game.