Either the Texas Longhorns or Washington Huskies are advancing to their first national championship in decades, and our Texas vs. Washington prediction for the Sugar Bowl is rooted in on the best college football odds at the college football betting sites.
The Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies engaged in an entertaining Alamo Bowl last year, with the Huskies securing a victory by a touchdown. The Longhorns are favored in a crucial rematch as they enter Monday's Sugar Bowl, the second game of the College Football Playoff semifinals.
In his three-year tenure at Texas (12-1), head coach Steve Sarkisian has performed admirably, crafting one of the most impressive resumes in college football, highlighted by a notable win against Alabama earlier this year. Following a thrilling defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 6, the Longhorns rebounded with sev en consecutive victories. The winning streak reached its pinnacle with a statement 49-21 triumph over a ranked Oklahoma State team in the Big 12 final.
On the other hand, Kalen DeBoer has led Washington (13-0) to unprecedented heights, steering it to 13 wins for the first time in school history. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. spearheaded the Huskies' record-setting offense, amassing 4,218 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, securing a second-place finish in Heisman Trophy voting.
To help fill out our New Year's Six predictions and as part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Texas vs. Washington prediction and our college football picks for Monday's Sugar Bowl in the College Football Playoff (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Texas vs. Washington prediction: Sugar Bowl&nb sp;(College Football Playoff)
I'm not as bullish on this pick as I am with my Alabama vs. Michigan prediction, which earned one of my two five-star endorsements of bowl season. This wager carries a more modest four-star endorsement – though I'll be betting Washington to win this game for a variety of reasons.
Make no mistake: Texas was back this year, and QB Quinn Ewers played a key role in that. The former No. 1 overall prospect shook off a rough freshman season to throw for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns as a sophomore, leading Texas to wins in 10 of his 11 starts.
That said, he turned it over seven times in his final seven games and isn't far removed from an injury that cost him two starts. When he returned, top rusher Jonathon Brooks (1,139 yards, 10 TDs) went down for the year, and star wideout Xavier Worthy (969 yards, 5 TDs) suffered an ankle injury in the Big-12 title game.
Worthy is expected to be back for the Sugar Bowl, but he'll face a tough matchup against Huskies cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who took over at times late in the year and helped shut down Oregon star Troy Franklin (34 yards) – a borderline first-round talent – in the Pac-12 Championship.
Washington's defense doesn't profile well on paper, though a loaded Pac-12 slate full of future NFL passers didn't help. The Huskies still managed to rank in the top 20 at preventing explosive plays and creating “havoc” plays in the secondary, with Muhammad (3 INTs, 10 PBUs) leading the way. Keep an eye on that matchup with the still-young Ewers in the biggest spot of his career.
The bigger mismatch in my view is the one between Penix and this overmatched Texas secondary, which ranked 86th at preventing explosive pass plays and 93rd in total passing yards allowed per game (240.8).
That's a major proble m against one of the nation's best deep passers, whose special connection with NFL-bound receiver Rome Odunze (1,428 yards, 13 TDs) has powered the most prolific pass offense in the country. It doesn't help that safety Derek Williams Jr. will miss the first half after a targeting ejection in the Big-12 title game.
The best unit on the field might be the Longhorns' defensive line, anchored by future pros Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat. Those two will make plays on Monday, and if Texas wins this matchup, you can be sure one of them will be at the center of it all.
Standing in their way, though, is a Washington offensive line that transformed midseason into one of the best units in the country – in pass protection and in the run game. That's helped spring free top rusher Dillon Johnson (1,113 yards, 14 TDs), who averaged 136.6 yards over his final five games.
It may sound cliched, but Wa shington really does have so many ways to beat you, which is how this team escaped an array of close games with a sterling 13-0 record. Those narrow margins cast doubt on the Huskies at times, but I watched this team go toe-to-toe twice with Oregon, which was built as well as any team in the country on both sides of the ball.
As much credit as Sarkisian deserves for Texas' resurgence, I'm not sure I'd want to be on the other side of a DeBoer-coached team with a month to prepare. There's value on the moneyline (+158 via bet365), which I'm betting in addition to this market-high spread of +4.5 at FanDuel.
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Texas vs. Washi ngton best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington +4 | Washington +4.5 | Washington +4 | Washington +4 | Washington +4 |
| -110 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Four of our five best sports betting sites are dealing the Huskies as 4-point underdogs for Monday's Sugar Bowl. Only one is trading Washington +4.5, which is the best price we've seen since this game opened.
That book is FanDuel, which tends to be an outlier whenever one exists. I'd still recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the best bonus offer available from FanDuel or another book.
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Texas vs. Washington odds
Texas vs. Washington odds analysis
This game opened w ith the Longhorns favored by anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 points across our best sports betting apps, and the line has settled around 4 at most shops. We're targeting the rogue +4.5 at FanDuel, which feels like too much value on one of the nation's lone undefeated teams.
The total opened at 62.5 but is now trading at a near-consensus 63.5 across our best sportsbooks. The lone outlier, of course, is FanDuel, which is still hanging a line of 62.5. We'd recommend always checking there first when shopping around for the best price.
College Football Playoff – Sugar Bowl game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
Texas-Washington prediction made Thursday at 11:30 p.m. ET.
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