The Texas Longhorns face the Tennessee Volunteers in Round 2 of March Madness on Saturday, as we offer our Texas vs. Tennessee picks and best bet based on the best March Madness odds.
The No. 7 seed Texas Longhorns (21-12) face the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers (25-8) on Saturday In a second-round NCAA Tournament matchup at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, with tipoff set for 8 p.m. ET. Tennessee enters Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite (-111) at our best sports betting sites in a contest that means a little extra to Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes.
By beating Texas, Barnes would advance to the Sweet 16 – something he failed to do in seven straight seasons as the Longhorns bench boss, eventually leading to his firing.
The Vols should be capable of getting revenge for Barnes against a Texas team that looked a little scattershot against Colorado State in the openi ng round. This is a perfect opportunity for Tennessee to flex it's talent and show why it's a Final Four odds favorite after its monstrous 83-49 win over Saint Peter's on Thursday.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our best Texas vs. Tennessee picks and best bets (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Texas vs. Tennessee odds
Texas (7) vs. Tennessee (2) best bet: Midwest Region
Best odds: -111 via Betway
Few teams in the country are as well-rounded as Tennessee. Not only do they have one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball in Dalton Knecht, but they rank third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Only 10 teams in the country rank in the top 30 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and Tennessee is one of them – it holds opponents to just 67.3 points per game while putting up 79.6.
That spells trouble for Texas after it allowed the fifth most points per game in Big 12 play this season (73.4) and ranked last in the conference in 3-point percentage allowed (36.9%). This Longhorns squad benefitted from its non-conference schedule, but looked out of place against Big 12 teams with less talent than the Vols. Texas went 9-10 against Big 12 teams this season and struggled noticeably on defense, allowing a field goal percentage of 46.2%.
Texas is just 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and has to try and slow down Knecht, who averaged 25.5 points per game in SEC play. Few players in the country have been as consistently terrifying of a scoring threat as Knecht. He's shooting 42.4% from three and 52.6% from two – and he's surrounded by some of the top defenders in the country.
The Longhorns will have to try to generate offense against a tea m that has three of the top five players in the SEC in DBPR, per EvanMiya, and six of the top 20. Tennessee is third in the country in field goal percentage allowed (38.6%), ninth in 2-point percentage allowed (44.1%), and 31st in 3-point percentage allowed (31%). Knecht can light up Texas on one end, and on the other end, his teammates can suffocate this Longhorns offense.
At -111 odds via Betway, there's a 52.61% implied probability that the Volunteers will cover the spread, according to our odds calculator. With those odds, a $10 bet would lead to a $9 profit.
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Texas vs. Tennessee spread & Over/Under analysis
The Volunteers opened as a 6.5-point favorite at Betway with the line staying put for now. We would expe ct it to move as much as a full point in the Volunteers' direction as tip-off approaches. Tennessee is 17-15-1 ATS this season and managed to cover as a 22-point favorite in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Texas on the other hand is just 13-20 ATS.
While the Vols have a potent scorer in Knecht, their defense is one of the best in the country and the reason the game total opened at 146.5. Due to Tennessee's defense being so stingy, we don't expect this total to change. While the Vols are just 17-16 for Over bettors this season, the Longhorns are 20-13 O/U and hit the Over in six of their last seven games.
Texas vs. Tennessee game info
- When: Saturday, March 22
- Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, N.C.
- How to watch: CBS
Texas-Tennessee prediction made Friday at 3:25 p.m. ET.
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