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Two Sun Belt programs coming off losses meet as Texas State heads to Veterans Memorial Stadium to take on Troy on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU).
- The Bobcats are a 13-point favorite at our college football betting sites, and we expect them to cover in our Texas State vs. Troy predicition
- Despite their Group of Five College Football Playoff odds taking a hit after a 2-2 start, the Bobcats are still among the best teams in the G5
- Texas State's Jordan McCloud may not be a Heisman Trophy odds contender, but he's one of the top QBs in the country
In what should be a high-scoring game, Texas State vs. Troy kicks off our Week 6 college football predictions.
Best Texas State vs. Troy picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Agains t the spread pick: Texas State -13 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Troy ???
- Player prop pick: Jordan McCloud Over 2.5 passing TDs (+110 via bet365) ????
Texas State vs. Troy against the spread prediction: Week 6
Texas State vs. Troy opening odds:
- Texas State: -15 (-110)
- Troy: +15 (-110)
Last week, Texas State blew a 22-0 lead against Sam Houston State to lose 40-39. This week, the Bobcats have the perfect get-right opportunity against a Troy team that's fallen apart under new head coach Gerard Parker.
The Trojans team that went 11-2 with Jon Sumrall in charge last year is gone, with many of the top players departing when Sumrall left for Tulane. As a result, Troy's defense has completely fallen apart.
Under Sumrall it was one of the best defenses in the G5. This season, though, Troy's 115th in EPA per rush and 130th in EPA per dropback. And its offense isn't good enough to make up the difference, scoring just the 109th most points per game (21.4).
Don't let Texas State's record fool you, this is still one of the most exciting offenses in the country. GJ Kinne's spread-n-shred attack is nearly impossible to stop for G5 opponents.
The Bobcats are putting up the 22nd-most points in the country (37.5) and rank 44th in SP+ on offense. The passing game in particular, with McCloud cooking this season, should be able to fry th e Trojans lackluster secondary.
I'm expecting Texas State to win with a score around 45 to 17. If they do, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Texas State vs. Troy prop pick for Week 6
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Kinne got lucky landing McCloud late in the transfer portal process after he won Sun Belt Player of the Year at James Madison last season. And he might take home the award again.
Since heading to San Marcos, McCloud has been as advertised. He leads the conference in TD passes (12) and has thrown at least three in three of four games.
Coming off his best game of the season – three big-time throws and an adjusted completion rate of 89.5% – I expect McCloud to shred Troy. And if he throws for Over 2.5 TDs, a $10 bet pays an $11 profit.
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Texas State vs. Troy odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Texas State vs. Troy game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 3
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium (Troy, Ala.)
- How to watch: ESPNU
- Weather: 75 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, 1 mph winds E
- Favorite: Texas State -13 (-110 via DraftKings)
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