Texas A&M and Houston face off for the second time in 2023-24 with a Sweet 16 berth on the line, and we offer our top Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction and best bet based on the best March Madness odds.
The second round of the NCAA Tournament will feature a rematch between the No. 9 seed Texas A&M Aggies (21-14) and the top-seeded Houston Cougars (31-4). Scheduled to tip off at 8:40 p.m. ET at FedExForum in Memphis, the game is anticipated to be fiercely competitive and will be televised on TNT.
Despite 34 points from Texas A&M guard Wade Taylor in the first meeting, Cougars secured a tough 70-66 win over the Aggies. While Taylor led a near upset the first time around, he could experience a difficult time trying to replicate that effort in Sunday's second-round showdown.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Texas A&M vs. Housto n prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Texas A&M vs. Houston odds
Texas A&M (9) vs. Houston (1) prediction: South Region
Best odds: -115 via bet365
This is a rare case where two teams from different conferences play a rematch of a regular-season game in the Round of 32. Taylor erupted for a game-high 34 points in a losing effort on Dec. 16, as he was the only Aggies player to score more than seven points.
However, Kelvin Sampson's squad is too good defensively to get torched like that a second time by the same player. Oddsmakers seem to agree, setting Taylor's O/U at nearly half of that first game's output.
Taylor was an efficient 10-of-22 shooting in the first game while tying a season-high with 14 3-point attempts. However, his 42% of his team's possessions in that game were much out of necessity, as Texas A&M did not have a healthy Tyrece Radford (16.1 PPG) to pair with Taylor in the backcourt – a big loss considering he is the only other Aggies player to average in double figures this season.
We would not be surprised to see Sampson switch defensive assignments and have Jamal Shead guard Taylor on most possessions, as Shead leads the country by a wide margin in EvanMiya's DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating).
The best value for this wager is at bet365, as DraftKings and Caesars charge slightly higher -120 and -129 prices to back the Under. Some bettors will prefer the value of -102 odds found at FanDuel, as a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.80 compared to $18.70 at bet365's price. Yet FanDuel's O/U is also one point lower at 16.5, and Taylor has not been held to fewer than 19 points in five consecutive games.
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Texas A&M vs. Houston spread & Over/Under analysis
Most of our best sports betting sites have Houston laying between 9.5 and 10 points against Texas A&M in a rematch of the Cougars' four-point win from earlier this season.
BetRivers and DraftKings were the only sportsbooks to open as high as -10, and while those books lowered that price at first, the market has since coelesced around -10. The Aggies have covered the spread in six of their last seven games, and two of those were outright wins in games they tipped off as underdogs.
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 132.5 as of Saturday afternoon, while BetRivers is the only shop that differs slightly with a total of 133. Any line movement has gone in the direction of the Over, as FanDuel opened at 131.5, while DraftKings is up slightly from an opening total of 132.
There is likely sharp action driving this movement, as the early betting splits suggest good two-way action with the slight majority (56%) backing the Over.
Texas A&M vs. Houston game info
- When: Sunday, March 24
- Tip-off: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where: FedExForum, Memphis, Tenn.
- How to watch: TNT
Texas A&M-Houston prediction made Saturday at 9:37 a.m. ET.
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