The first season of Coach Steve Sarkisian's reign at Texas did not go well. The Longhorns went from 7-3 and a bowl victory in Tom Herman's final season to 5-7 in 2021 – including an utterly humiliating loss to Big 12 doormat Kansas. It was the Jayhawks' first conference win on the road since 2008. Sarkisian has been recruiting as well as anyone, though, and expectations are much higher this year in Austin as UT opened with an over/under win total of 9.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. However, bettors at the book hav e hammered the Under when betting on Texas more than any other school in the country, and that total is now 8.5.
I have to say I'm a bit surprised that there has been so much action on the Under because Texas is such a public team – like Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State or Michigan – and the general public generally bets optimistically, not pessimistically.
The Longhorns also have arguably the best running back in the nation in Bijan Robinson, and Quinn Ewers taking over at quarterback. He was the nation's highest-rated recruit in 2021, according to the 247Sports Composite ranking. (Ewers may only start one season before Arch Manning arrives in Austin.) The team is loaded at wideout as well with Xavier Worthy (UT freshman-record 12 touchdowns last season), Jordan Whittington and Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor (12 TDs in 2021). The defense was an issue a year ago, though, allowing 31.1 points and 201.6 rushing yards (5.2 yards per carry) per game.
“Wh en we put up Texas, obviously they had a poor year last year but we projected them as the favorites to win the Big 12,” said Joey Feazel, lead college football trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “We like the offense a lot with Bijan Robinson and Quinn Ewers leading the way, and we still expect big things. But bettors just aren't buying the hype, they probably think it'll be same old Texas. I think the difference between them and USC in bettors' minds, with USC getting mostly Over money, is that Lincoln Riley has won a lot of people money in the past and Texas didn't make a change from Steve Sarkisian.”