The Houston Texans (2-0-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (2-0-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Texans vs. Vikings Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Texans vs. Vikings Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today
- T.J. Hockenson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Justin Jefferson has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Oliver has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
- T.J. Hockenson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Aaron Jones has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Vikings vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Array | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 |
| Array | 71.5 -120 | 71.5 -110 |
| Array | 45.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Vikings vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Array | 47.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 |
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+13.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+12.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Vikings Best Bets:
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Texans went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -50% ROI).
- Texans are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 44.44% ROI
- Texans are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Texans are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI
Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Vikings went 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Vikings are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 133.33% ROI
- Vikings are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Vikings are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings
The Texans are 12-5 (.706) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Vikings have turned the ball over 38 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Texans were 4-1 (.800) vs bottom 10 pass defenses last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .506.
The Texans are 8-1 (.889) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2022 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .620.
The Texans are undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of first quarter since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .717.
Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Vikings were winless (0-4) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Vikings are winless (0-3) after a road win since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .466.
The Vikings were 3-6 (.333) when playing in cold weather last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Vikings are winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .146.
Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have run just 34.3% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to run just 29.4% of plays in their territory this season — 2nd-best in NFL.