Two Big 12 teams capable of going on runs deep into March will test their mettle against one another for the third time this season. Read on for our TCU vs. Texas college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.
Texas (24-8) and TCU (21-11) have engaged in a pair of competitive bouts so far this season. With every reason to believe a third such game could be on tap in Kansas City on Friday night, we're looking closely at the value on the underdog in this Big 12 Tournament game as we dissect the conference championship odds.
Here is our best TCU vs. Texas college basketball pick (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
TCU vs. Texas odds
TCU vs. Texas prediction
Bart Torvik's metrics have Texas with the highest T-Rank in the Big 1 2 across its past five games, peaking with a 16-point win over likely No. 1-seed Kansas in that stretch. But also within that stretch of games came a two-point road loss to TCU.
That was payback for the Longhorns dealing a four-point defeat to the Frogs earlier in the season. So these two teams have played two highly competitive games at one another's arena, meaning a neutral site for the rubber match of the 2023 series could further level the playing field.
Both TCU and Texas have been rather mediocre against the spread this season, with the Frogs going 16-15-1 ATS and the Longhorns at 15-17 ATS. Though The Longhorns have a slightly stronger resume, TCU was favored over No. 3-seed Kansas State on Thursday for a reason.
The Frogs have balance and won't shy away from the pace the Longhorns tend to run. In a matchup that could once again come down to the final seconds, I appre ciate the notion of TCU catching valuable points.
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TCU vs. Texas best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU +2 | TCU +1.5 | TCU +2.5 | TCU +2 | TCU +2 |
| -110 | -102 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
As the afternoon has developed, we have seen line movement toward TCU at some of our best March Madness betting sites. Most books sit at +2, while FanDuel is now the least favorable while offering a line of +1.5. As of this writing, TCU is still +2.5 at BetMGM, making that the best value on the board for this pick.
The primary attraction of this pick is that, between two evenly-matched foes, I'm going to take a possession's worth of points on an underdog if you're going to give it to me. So if the line moves down to +1.5, this recommendation would be reduced to three stars.
TCU vs. Texas odds analysis
Texas opened as a 2.5-point favorite but as of Friday afternoon, we began to see some movement toward TCU from that number. Still, around 70% of wagers have been placed on Texas.
The total opened at 147.5 and decreased to 146.5 across our recommended sportsbooks. Just over 50% of wagers placed on the total have come in on the Over.
TCU vs. Texas game info
- Date: Friday, March 10, 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
TCU-Texas pick made 03/10/2023 at 2 p.m. ET.
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