The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EDT.
TCU is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The TCU vs. SMU Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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TCU vs SMU Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
TCU vs SMU Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today
- Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Josh Hoover has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Savion Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
- JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Drake Dabney has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jaylan Knighton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
TCU is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- TCU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -9.09% ROI
- TCU is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- TCU is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.25 Units / -100% ROI).
- SMU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -11.09% ROI
- SMU is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- SMU is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
TCU is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .355
TCU is 13-6 (.684) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .497
TCU is 16-7 (.640) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .535
TCU is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2022 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .570
SMU is winless (0-4) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408
SMU is winless (0-4) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .453
SMU is winless (0-4) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .417
SMU is winless (0-3) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .445
SMU has gained 4,533 yards on 324 receptions (14.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
SMU’s TEs has gained 876 yards on 58 receptions (15.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among ACC TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.