The Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers on Feb. 11 in Super Bowl LVIII, and we have you covered with our Super Bowl MVP predictions based on the best NFL odds.
The favorite San Francisco 49ers clash with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Feb. 11, 2024. The much-anticipated battle is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV and should be a treat for football fans.
Offensive players have captured the last seven Super Bowl MVP awards, with five quarterbacks and two wide receivers capturing the honor. The last running back to win Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXIII – that might be bad news for 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey.
Wide receiver is the second-most decorated position. While you could get odds of +800 if you bet any wide receiver to win the award, you can get much better odds by taking one specific player.
After looking at the best Super Bowl MVP odds, here are our Super Bowl MVP predictions and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
2024 Super Bowl MVP predictions
- Patrick Mahomes (+135 via Caesars)
- Deebo Samuel (+3500 via BetMGM)
- L'Jarius Sneed (+25000 via BetMGM)
Who will be the Super Bowl MVP?
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, then it is very likely that Mahomes will take home the Super Bowl MVP trophy. He has been named the MVP in both of the Chiefs' Super Bowl wins with him under center, and he won it last year despite throwing for just 182 yards.
For a wide receiver or tight end to win this award, they would need to be the primary target and score multiple touchdowns, as Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp did two years ago. While Mahomes may throw the ball non-stop to Travis Kelce, the tight end has not yet put up MVP-type numbers this season.
What's most interesting about Mahomes being the favorite is that the Chiefs are underdogs. The winning team has had the MVP in all but one Super Bowl, and that was Super Bowl V. If you agree with oddsmakers and believe the 49ers should be favored, then consider backing McCaffrey to be MVP. Though QB Brock Purdy has shorter odds than him, McCaffrey is our pick for most likely MVP if the 49ers win.
If you think that Kansas City will get it done, use our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000, to get the best price on its signal-caller.
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If there is a wide receiver in this game who can put up incredible numbers and steal the MVP award, it's Samuel. After suffering an injury against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round, Samuel caught eight passes for 89 yards against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship.
Samuel's ability to score through the air and on the ground makes him so dangerous. He finished the regular season with 12 touchdowns, five of which were rushing scores.
The Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in football, and they've looked phenomenal in each of their three playoff games. But if the 49ers are going to win this game, they're going to need production from someone other than McCaffrey. There is some value in these odds for their dual-threat wideout to be the one who gets it done – especially if Purdy turns the ball over once or twice.
A cornerback hasn't won Super Bowl MVP since Dexter Jackson won it with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII. But Sneed has a legitimate shot this year.
Purdy has had three multiple-interception games this season. Last week, he threw one interception against the Lions, and he had n umerous errant throws that could have resulted in turnovers.
Sneed hasn't had an interception since the Chiefs played the Philadelphia Eagles on November 20th. Yet, he still finished the year leading the Chiefs in picks. If this is a low-scoring game, which is possible with how good the Chiefs' defense has been and how their offense has struggled this season, then a defensive player may win this. If one does, the best cornerback on the better defense is our pick.
Shopping around our best sportsbooks results in a top value at BetMGM.
Recent Super Bowl MVP winners
| Year | Name | Position | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | +400 |
| 2022 | Cooper Kupp | Wide receiver | +600 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | +190 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes | Quarterback | +105 |
| 2019 | Julian Edelman | Wide receiver | +2500 |
| 2018 | Nick Foles | Quarterback | +460 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | +125 |
| 2016 | Von Miller | Linebacker | +2500 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | Quarterback | +200 |
| 2014 | Malcolm Smith | Linebacker | +2200 |
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