Monday's playoff matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills has come to be defined by winter weather, and our Steelers vs. Bills prediction based on the best NFL odds expects the snowstorm to continue to make headlines over Wild Card Weekend.
If you like your football with a side of snow and swirling winds, then you'll love this wild-card matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (11-6), which has become the dominant story over NFL Wild Card Weekend as a major snowstorm forced one postponement and could impact the product on the field for Monday, too.
Originally, this game was scheduled to kick off Sunday amid sub-freezing temperatures, snow flurries, and winds of 30 mph with gusts approaching 65 mph. The NFL postponed the game to Monday to avoid dangerous travel conditions for these two sides and their fans, though these teams won't avoid w inter weather entirely in their new time slot.
Even if conditions improve by Monday, the temperature for this game will be even colder a day later, and wind could still be a factor for these teams' passing offenses and kicking games. Can the Bills fight through the storm to cover as big favorites, or will the underdog Steelers stay close in a weather-marred affair?
As part of our NFL Predictions for Wild Card Weekend and in conjunction with our Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props, here is our best Steelers vs. Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Bills prediction for Wild Card Weekend
This total has been on the move all week, opening at 41 before dropping as low as 33.5 as the projected winter storm worsened ahead of a Sunday kickoff. Since the game was postpo ned to Monday, the total reopened as high as 37.5 at two of our best sports betting sites – even as winter weather continues to loom over this contest.
While the eye of the storm is expected to consume the Buffalo region on Saturday night into Sunday, the winter storm warning remains into effect mere hours before kickoff, and the temperatures for Monday's game are still expected to be below 20 degrees.
Winds are also expected to reach 15 mph – not as bad as the 50-60 mph gusts over the weekend, but still a clear deterrent for a competent passing game. We saw that last week, when the Patriots and Jets cashed on the lowest total in three decades (28.5) in a snowy, windy disaster.
All of that said, I'd still be eyeing the Under in this matchup even without the impending winter weather, as the matchup on the field has the makings of a slugfest.
Let's start with the Stee lers' offense, which is easily the worst unit on the field. Pittsburgh has shown some life under third-string QB Mason Rudolph, but much of his production has come on explosive plays, which will be much harder to come by in Sunday's sub-freezing conditions.
Instead, expect the Steelers to lean heavily on the ground game, as they've done over the back half of the season. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh ranks sixth in rushing yards per game (142.9) behind the two-headed attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who both rank in the top five in rushing yards over expected in that stretch per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Bills have become a run-first team since Joe Brady took over as interim offensive coordinator. That hasn't stopped Josh Allen from turning the ball over eight times in those seven weeks, as Buffalo's offense has scored 27 or fewer points in three straight games.
That hasn't mattered for th e Bills, as their defense has emerged as one of the best units in football over the second half of the season. We saw that on full display on Sunday night when they held an admittedly short-handed Dolphins offense to just 14 points with just 47 net yards in the second half – which came a few weeks after holding the high-flying Cowboys to a season-low 10 points in Week 15.
The Steelers' defense will be without elite pass-rusher T.J. Watt on Sunday, a loss that cannot be understated. That said, the team is expected to return safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Damontae Kazee (suspension) this week, while rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. and edge rusher Alex Highsmith are rising stars in their own right.
The Bills are the better team on paper, though I can't justify laying double digits in a game that could be marred by still-present snow showers and frigid conditions. I bet a half-unit on the Steelers at +10, but it was more a comp liment to my full-unit bet on the Under.
This was one of our favorite prop bets of the week a few days ago, when winds were expected to reach up to 50-60 mph for a Sunday afternoon contest. Monday's forecast isn't quite so ominous, but we still like this wager as a way to profit on unfavorable weather conditions in Buffalo.
Even though Monday's forecast isn't as apocalyptic as Sunday's, this game will still be played through snow showers and winds around 15 mph. That's a clear deterrent for lengthy field goals – as we saw in that Jets-Patriots game, when neither kicker made a field goal exceeding 40 yards.
Steelers kicker Chris Boswell has been among the more accurate kickers (93.5%) in the 2023-24 season, but his average kick was 39 yards and he made one of 46-plus yards in just six of 17 games in the regular season. Meanwhile, Bills kicker Tyler Bass ranked 28th in accuracy (82.8%) and had just five games with a kick over this total with none since late November.
I'd expect these kickers to be involved from closer range if given the opportunity, which is why I wouldn't fade field goals entirely. That said, I'd be surprised if either of these kickers boots one from distance through the swirling wind.
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Steelers vs. Bills best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 37 | Under 37 | Under 37.5 | Under 37 | Under 37.5 |
| -108 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
After this total opened as high as 41 and dropped as low as 33.5, our best sports betting sites have settled with a total between 37 and 37.5 after this game was postponed to Monday to avoid dangerous conditions on Sunday afternoon.
We still like the Under in this matchup, and two of our best sportsbooks are offering a total of 37.5 with -110 odds either way. Our choice between the two is bet365, which has better cash-out options in case of another postponement, but this is still entirely a personal preference.
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Steelers vs. Bills odds
Steelers vs. Bills odds analysis
The total for this game o pened as high as 41 at DraftKings and 40.5 elsewhere before the betting market seized on the Under with a winter storm expected to converge on Buffalo – bringing the potential for snow and 30-mph winds, if not worse.
Then the game was postponed to Monday, which forced some of our best live betting sites to void wagers and the entire market to briefly take the game off the board before reopening on Saturday evening with a higher total. We still like the Under, as we laid out above, and would recommend betting it sooner rather than later in case conditions worsen in Buffalo.
If you're looking to bet the spread on this game, four of our five best sports betting apps are offering the Bills at -10 (-110), so you might as well wait to see if this line creeps beyond that key number closer to kickoff. Meanwhile, the Steelers' best odds are +10 (-105) at FanDuel, which is the side we'd bet ahead of Monday.
Steelers vs. Bills game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 15 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds
Steelers-Bills prediction made Saturday at 7:15 p.m. ET.
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