Points could be at a premium Sunday when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills face off on NFL Wild Card Weekend, and our Steelers vs. Bills prediction based on the best NFL odds is expecting a potential rock fight in a game that could be dictated by weather.
For all of the intrigue and storylines surrounding NFL Wild Card Weekend, the first of Sunday's three-game slate could be the wildest of all when the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (11-6) face off in the wintry conditions of upstate New York.
The early weather report for Sunday's wild-card clash suggests below-freezing temperatures with snow and winds between 15 and 30 mph – with gusts reaching up to 50 mph. We've already seen a swift reaction from the betting market, and if recent weather-marred games are any indication, the early movement hasn't been aggressive enough.
As part of our NFL Predictions for Wild Card Weekend, here is our best Steelers vs. Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Bills prediction for Wild Card Weekend
The moment the betting market opened for this game after the Bills' win on Sunday Night Football, the total started dropping as precipitously as the expected temperature in Buffalo ahead of next Sunday's kickoff. If you grabbed the Under on the opening total of 41, pat yourself on the back for some incredible closing line value.
And if you didn't? This is still the best bet on the board in a matchup that already skews toward a defensive battle.
The main reason for this bet, clearly, is the expected wintry weather in the Buffalo area ahead of Sunday morning. The low temperatures and snow are one thin g, but such high winds are an Under bettors' dream. Look no further than last week, when the Patriots and Jets cashed on the lowest total (28.5) in three decades in a snowy, windy disaster.
Such high winds virtually eliminate any form of a consistent passing attack downfield, and it even neutralizes the kicking game, too. That said, I'd still be eyeing the Under in this matchup even without the impending winter weather.
Let's start with the Steelers' offense, which is easily the worst unit on the field. Pittsburgh has shown some life under third-string QB Mason Rudolph – who still ranks third-worst in on-target percentage (56.5%) among 52 passers with at least 75 attempts – but much of his production has come on explosive plays, which will be much harder to come by in Sunday's conditions.
Instead, expect the Steelers to lean heavily on the ground game, as they've done over the back half of t he season. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh ranks sixth in rushing yards per game (142.9) behind the two-headed attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who both rank in the top five in rushing yards over expected in that stretch per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Bills have become a run-first team since Joe Brady took over as interim offensive coordinator. That hasn't stopped Josh Allen from turning the ball over eight times in those seven weeks, as Buffalo's offense has scored 27 or fewer points in three straight games.
That hasn't mattered, as this defense has emerged as one of the best units in football over the second half of the season. We saw that on full display on Sunday night when the Bills held an admittedly short-handed Dolphins offense to just 14 points with just 47 net yards in the second half – which came a few weeks after holding the high-flying Cowboys to a season-low 10 points in Week 15.
The Steel ers' defense could be without elite pass-rusher T.J. Watt on Sunday, a loss that cannot be understated. That said, the team is expected to return safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and Damontae Kazee (suspension) this week, while rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. and edge rusher Alex Highsmith are rising stars in their own right, even if Watt can't go.
The Bills are the better team on paper, but I can't justify laying double digits in a game that the weather could ultimately dictate. I bet a half-unit on the Steelers at +10 late Sunday night, but it was more a compliment to my full-unit bet on Under 39.
This three-star endorsement reflects the lessened value at this lower total, and the market seems to have mostly priced in the potential for cataclysmic weather with this number. As we've seen recently, though, almost no total can fully account for the chaos we might see on Sunday.
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Steelers vs. Bills best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35.5 | Under 35.5 | Under 35.5 | Under 35.5 | Under 35 |
| -112 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
After this total opened as high as 41, our best sports betting sites are in near-consensus with a total of 35.5, with two books – DraftKings and FanDuel – juicing the Under and bet365 moving all the way down to 35 as of Monday evening.
That leaves two of our best sportsbooks – BetMGM and Caesars – offering a total of 35.5 with standard -110 odds. My choice between them is BetMGM, but that's entirely a personal preference. With the market so closely aligned, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the most out of your wager.
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Steelers vs. Bills odds
Steelers vs. Bills odds analysis
The total for this game opened as high as 41 at DraftKings and 40.5 elsewhere before the betting market seized on the Under with a winter storm expected to converge on Buffalo – bringing the potential for snow and 25-mph winds, if not worse.
I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see this total continue to drop, especially if the predicted winds on Sunday worsen. That's why I'd recommend grabbing the best price on the Under at whichever of our best sports betting apps you fancy, even if it's not the best number of the week.
If you're looking to bet the spread on this game, FanDuel has the best price on the Bills at -9.5 (-105), while the Steelers are still hanging at +10 (-110) at BetMGM. Those 10s seem to be disappearing fast, especially with the weather looming, so I'd grab that while you can if you're expecting a close game on Sunday.
Steelers vs. Bills game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 14 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 23 degrees, 66% chance of precipitation, 31-mph winds
Steelers-Bills prediction made Monday at 6:05 p.m. ET.
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