Winter weather has come to define Monday's matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills, and our Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props based on the best NFL odds expect snowy conditions to play a factor even after the postponement.
The winter storm in Buffalo has taken center stage over NFL Wild Card Weekend, as it's already forced one postponement of Monday's wild-card matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (11-6). And it could have a major impact on the player props market, too.
This game was scheduled to take place on Sunday amid a winter snowstorm, with sub-freezing temperatures and wind gusts approaching 65 mph. The NFL postponed it to Monday to minimize dangerous travel conditions for teams and fans, but this contest will still take place in brutal weather – which has us eyeing some very specific player props to target.
In addition to our Steelers vs. Bills prediction and our NFL player props and best bets for Wild Card Weekend, here are our best Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend
Originally, this prop was dealing at 29.5 yards in a game originally scheduled to coincide with a blizzard in Buffalo. I still like this bet just as much a day later, as oddsmakers seem to be underestimating the weather – and overestimating Rudolph's arm – ahead of Monday's rescheduled kickoff.
Anyone who follows my bets regularly knows I love attacking the longest completion market, which can often be a nice alternative to fade a lousy quarterback (or target an underrated one) when their yardage prop offers subpar value. It's also one of my favorite ways to bet on the conditions for Monday – which aren't as bad as Sunday but will be even colder and still features snow showers and winds around 15 mph.
This serves both purposes, as I have very little faith in Rudolph's ability to break through against a resurgent Bills defense and suspect the Steelers coaching staff will lean heavily on the run game in these wintry conditions. That said, Rudolph's passing yardage prop is hovering around 170, which is quite the pill to swallow for Under bettors.
Instead, I'm betting against Pittsburgh's third-string QB completing a 30-yard pass on Sunday. Yes, he's cleared this total in all three starts thus far, but he's also benefitted tremendously from explosive plays after the catch, as his YAC/completion (7.7) is the highest of any passer with at least 70 attempts. Many of his completions have looked a lot like this:
On the other hand, his intended air yards per att empt (7.0) ranks 38th out of 52 passers with as many attempts as Rudolph, who now faces a Bills defense allowing the second-lowest average depth of target (6.8) in the league. The weather is the impetus for this bet, but the matchup makes it even sweeter.
Rudolph will also be one of four QBs making their first playoff start, which hasn't gone well for playoff newcomers in the past (except for C.J. Stroud, who remains the outlier for all young QBs). That's another reason to fade Rudolph on Sunday, and this wager is my single favorite way to do that.
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This prop was trading one yard lower before the postponement to Monday. That isn't nearly enough of an adjustment to deter me from betting on arguably the biggest schematic mismatch for the Bills offense this weeke nd.
If you just look at the box score, Kincaid has had a relatively uneven rookie campaign. The eye test tells the story of an emerging stud, though, which was on full display last week when he hauled in seven catches for 84 yards – his second straight game with 80-plus yards and ninth with at least 35 yards in 16 appearances.
Now he faces a Steelers defense that has struggled to contain shifty tight ends this season, especially late in the year.
Ten different tight ends finished with at least 35 yards against Pittsburgh this season – Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku did so twice – and the Steelers allowed two such performances in the same game in Week 17, when Noah Fant (59 yards) and Colby Parkinson (38) both went off for the Seattle Seahawks.
I don't mind betting the Over on his receptions total, which is trading as low as 3.5 (-115) via Caesars, but I'm still a bit skeptical of Buffalo's overall passing volume on Sunday. That's also why this isn't a five-star play. That said, I still expect Kincaid to weather the storm (literally) as a featured part of the Bills' attack this weekend.
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This prop was dealing as high as +220 when the game was expected to take place in a literal blizzard. We've seen this odds move slightly with Monday's postponement, but I'm still betting it in a matchup that should favor the Steelers' lead back.
Since Pittsburgh fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada ahead of Week 12, Harris has averaged 18.1 carries – seventh-most in the NFL – with five touchdowns in that stretch, which is tied for sixth-most by any back. He's also ranked in the top five in rushing yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which sp eaks to his ability to generate gains beyond his circumstances.
That'll be key on Monday, when circumstances will be sup-optimal for scoring. Even though the wind won't reach those 65 mph gusts, this game will still be played through snow snowers and sub-20 degree temperatures. That should spell another heavy workload for Harris, who has seen back-to-back games with 25-plus carries and feels like a solid bet to see similar volume this weekend.
That's enough for me to sprinkle some money on his anytime touchdown odds at this price, which is a clear outlier among our best sports betting sites.
Steelers-Bills player props made Saturday at 8:10 p.m. ET.
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