The Dallas Stars staved off elimination with an overtime victory in Game 4, and now they hit the highway for another must-win game against the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has an early lean based on the NHL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Good goaltending has been the calling card of winning teams this postseason, and Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger dialed it in with 37 saves in Game 4. The Stars never led, but veteran Joe Pavelski became the oldest player to score an OT winner in NHL history to keep Big D alive.
While Vegas wasn't able to sweep Dallas in the Western Conference Final, the Golden Knights are 6-2 at T-Mobile Arena during the playoffs while allowing a postseason-low 1.58 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
I'm expecting goals to be at a premium again in Game 5, and lady luck to be on Vegas' side.
Here is our best Stars vs. Golden Knights prediction for Saturday (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Stars vs. Golden Knights pick
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With Game 5 back at T-Mobile Arena, and early bettors racing to back the Golden Knights, I recommend capitalizing on the -133 odds available through BetMGM for two reasons.
First, the Stars scored two power-play goals, and their No. 1 line of Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Jason Robertson dominated five-on-five possession with a 68.97 Corsi For percentage in Game 4.
In Games 1 and 2, the Dallas top line played most of its minutes against Vegas' top-defense pair of Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez. Hintz, Pavelski, and Robertson posted a 46.8 CF% and generated just 1.02 expected goals across the two contests.
They only lined up against Pietrangelo for 5:45 at 5v5 on Thursday.
Vegas bench boss Bruce Cassidy has the last-change advantage, and he'll ensure his shut-down pair is opposite Dallas' No. 1 line Saturday, which will also put extra pressure on Dallas' inferior supporting cast to contribute.
Stars captain Jamie Benn will be snacking on popcorn in the pressbox to cap off his two-game ban Saturday, and winger Evgeni Dadonov wasn't able to suit up Thursday after sustaining a lower-body injury early in Game 3. Dadonov has been sneaky good with 10 points – four goals – through 16 postseason contests, so Dallas' middle-six depth and secondary scoring could be lacking again in Game 5.
The second shortcoming for Big D has been in goal. Oettinger has looked like Swiss cheese with a 3-5 road record and .868 save percentage. He had to stop 37 of 39 shots (.949 SV%) to win Game 4, and I'm anticipating him treading water around the .900 mark in losing fashion Saturday.
Simply put, mediocre goaltending and tough five-on-five matchups are going to be too much for Dallas to overcome.
Stars vs. Golden Knights best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas moneyline | Vegas moneyline | Vegas moneyline | Vegas moneyline | Vegas moneyline |
| -135 | -142 ?? | -133 ?? | -135 | -140 |
While the -133 odds through BetMGM present an expected value of just 3% over the -142 price FanDuel is hanging, I'm expecting the advantage to increase leading into Saturday's puck drop.
Early bettors have already weighed in on the Vegas side, and I'm anticipating that to remain the case. I would play this moneyline to -140.
Stars vs. Golden Knights odds
Stars vs. Golden Knights odds analysis
| Side | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stars moneyline | +115 | +118 | +110 ?? | +115 | +120 ?? |
| Golden Knights moneyline | -135 | -142 ?? | -133 ?? | -135 | -140 |
| Stars +1.5 | -230 | -220 ?? | -238 | -240 | -245 ?? |
| Golden Knights -1.5 | +195 | +180 ?? | +190 | +195 | +195 |
The highlighted odds reinforce why having access to multiple sportsbooks is the easiest path to gaining a numbers advantage. There is an outlier high and low number for each side in this game across our best live betting sites.
| Total | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-108) ?? | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-110) |
| Under | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-112) ?? | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-110) |
Prospective bettors should note there have been five goals or fewer in each of the past three games of this series, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's line movement to the Under.
Stars vs. Golden Knights game info
- Date: Saturday, May 27, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, ABC, Sportsnet
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Stars vs. Golden Knights pick made 5/26/2023 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
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