Last week’s Stability Mismatches produced a record of just 6-9 ATS, with several bad beats. The fact that we’ve already seen 18 Stability Mismatches over the Week 0/1 schedules (8-10 ATS overall), and have 14 more in Week 2, shows just how much instability the super-senior rule can cause.
I’ll be watching the teams with transfer-portal quarterbacks more closely in the coming weeks, particularly Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel and USC with Caleb Williams. Playing in familiar systems with familiar offensive coordinators, these players looked comfortable in their first games with their new teams. This could set up a permanent tinkering of my system to the returning/new quarterback values. Be sure to consider this as you handicap this week’s games based on the system.
If you missed the full explanation of my Stability System or are new to VSiN, I encourage you to go back to the VSiN College Football Betting Guide or other archived stories at VSiN.com to find reports in which I detail the methodology. For a short explanation, this Stability System, which I’ve employed for the last 11 seasons without a losing campaign, measures one team’s stability against another’s. Using a point-assigning process for coaches, quarterbacks and returning starters, I come up with an overall Stability Score for each team. When the difference between these scores is 8 or higher, I consider it a Stability Mismatch.
An important note: The Stability Score difference in any matchup has nothing to do with the point spread. I am simply making the assumption that oddsmakers have not given enough credence to the Stability Difference.
Here are the 14 Stability Mismatches for Week 2. I’ll continue to offer mismatches over the next couple of weeks. After a few games, oddsmakers typically make the full adjustments. However, you should feel comfortable employing this strategy in the first few weeks of the season.
Duke at Northwestern (-9.5)
Stability Advantage: Northwestern by 15
Northwestern was the toast of college football after a Week 0 win over Nebraska in Dublin. The Wildcats looked very sharp, a totally different team than the one that left the field in November. Quarterback Ryan Hilinski had a very nice game against the Cornhuskers and will look to build on that success this week against Duke, a team that routed Temple 30-0 in its opener. Don’t overreact to that blowout, however, as the Owls looked more like a Division II team than one in the FBS. This is a massive stability edge for what figures to be a confident Wildcats team.
Middle Tennessee State (+ 7.5) at Colorado State
Stability Advantage: MTSU by 11
Colorado State was an easy fade winner for the Stability System last week at Michigan, but this week’s opponent and point spread is a different animal. The Rams are expected to win this time, and by a healthy margin. This despite being beaten 51-7 while gaining just 3.7 yards per play in the opener — and being one of the more unstable teams in the country. MTSU doesn’t provide a whole lot of reason to get excited, as the Blue Raiders dropped a 44-7 decision to a James Madison team playing its first FBS game. In a game such as this one, trusting a historically winning system is one of the only reasons to back a team.
Akron at Michigan State (-34.5)
Stability Advantage: Michigan State by 14
Akron struggled in its opener against Saint Francis (Pa.), eventually escaping with a 30-23 victory. It gets a lot tougher this week as the Zips have to travel to Big Ten country to take on Michigan State. In their last outing versus a Big Ten opponent in 2018, they were clobbered 42-3 at Illinois. The Spartans come off an easy win in their opener over another MAC team, Western Michigan, but did fail to cover the point spread. While it may seem daunting to back a team that scored 35 points last week, and 31.8 PPG last season, as a 34.5-point favorite, consider that Akron allowed 60 points to Auburn last year.
Houston (+ 1.5) at Texas Tech