It doesn't take a thorough memory-jogging to get Jay Kornegay to remember when the SuperBook decided to stop taking futures wagers on the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) award.
It was in 2020, recalled the SuperBook's executive vice president of sportsbook operations, when “Alex Smith won it by playing in one game.”
Smith, who'd missed the entirety of the 2019 season after suffering a gruesome injury that nearly led to his right leg being amputated, technically appeared in eight games for Washington during the 2020 season, compiling an impressive 5-1 record as a starter. But Kornegay's point is well taken: As soon as Smith set foot on the field in 2020, the award was his to lose, as preordained as preordained can be.
It sure felt like Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin was destined for the same treatment by voters in 2023. His 2022 season was cut short when he suffered cardiac arrest after absorbing a hit to the chest while playing special teams during a marquee Monday Night Football game in Cincinnati. The initial question wasn't whether Hamlin would ever play again, it was whether he would live. And when he returned to the field in October of last year, the CPOY award seemed as good as his.
But along came Joe Flacco, plucked from the free-agent scrap heap by Cleveland in a desperate attempt to replace injured quarterback Deshaun Watson. The 38-year-old, who'd led Baltimore to a Super Bowl victory in his prime, had spent the previous three seasons as a backup with the lowly New York Jets and hardly seemed positioned for a resurgence.
The Flacco renaissance, however, was real. The veteran signal-caller went 4-1 in five games as a starter, leading the Browns to their first playoff berth since 2020. When it came time for the Associated Press to vote on CPOY, it was Flacco who emerged victorious, with Hamlin finishing second.
Earlier this week, though, the AP issued a clarification as to the award's criteria which makes one thing abundantly clear: It never wants someone like Flacco beating out a Hamlin for CPOY ever again.
Sign Up For The Sports Handle Newsletter!
Sucking and Sitting No Longer Enough?
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” the AP told voters on Tuesday, according to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, who proceeded to opine that this meant “coming back from sucking” and “coming back from being a backup” would no longer pass muster in the eyes of voters.
Florio went on to wonder whether early CPOY futures bettors, who'd gotten down on the likes of Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, or Russell Wilson, might be entitled to refunds by any sportsbook that hung early odds on those players. While Sports Handle's outreach to several major sportsbooks didn’t yield any feedback along those lines, it's telling that both Darnold and Wilson had vanished from Caesars Sportsbook's odds board by Thursday after being present prior to the announcement. (Caesars had Wilson priced at 22/1 on Wednesday, while Fields' odds went from 30/1 to 60/1 overnight at the sportsbook.)
Like FanDuel, Circa had yet to post any CPOY odds as of Thursday. But after reading the award's new criteria, Circa's operations manager, Jeff Benson, said, “obviously, it will cause us to price the market differently when we do hang it.”
Benson added that while CPOY doesn't generate the same handle as, say, the MVP futures market, “it is somewhat popular.”
Quarterbacks Dominate Top of Odds Board
Darnold might seem like a sucker's bet based on the newly stated criteria, but both Fanatics (25/1) and DraftKings (20/1) had him listed among their CPOY contenders as of midday Thursday.
Meanwhile, Wilson's price went from 12/1 to 20/1 overnight at DraftKings. Yet Wilson might fall under the “other circumstances” umbrella after he was benched late last year by the Denver Broncos due to a bizarre contract dispute. Denver then freed him up to sign with Pittsburgh after granting his release and eating an all-you-can-eat buffet's worth of dead cap dough.
If there's an upside to the tightened criteria, it's that it makes it clear that players coming back from injury will receive top-line consideration by oddsmakers. Aaron Rodgers' first season with the Jets ended last year after just a few snaps. Now, unsurprisingly, he's the consensus favorite to win CPOY, priced anywhere from +110 (Fanatics) to +130 (Caesars).
A trio of starting quarterbacks returning from injury – Cincinnati's Joe Burrow (+250 at DraftKings), Atlanta's Kirk Cousins (5/1 at DraftKings), and Indianapolis' Anthony Richardson (+850 at Fanatics) – round out the top four, while Cleveland quarterback Watson (22/1 at DraftKings) and running back Nick Chubb (16/1 at Fanatics) are also toward the top of the odds board, with quarterbacks Kyler Murray (30/1 at DraftKings) and Daniel Jones (28/1 at Caesars) in the mix as well.
If Richardson has a breakout season for the Colts, he might offer the most value, as he was hurt just four starts into what looked like a promising rookie campaign in 2023.