A win for either Spain or Italy will give one of the European Giants control of Group B and guarantee their place in the round of 16, and we have you covered with our Spain vs. Italy props picks and predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.
Thursday's matchup between Spain (1-0-0) and Italy (1-0-0) will mark the 11th encounter between these two countries at a major tournament, spanning the European Championships (8) and FIFA World Cup (3)-a record between two European nations.
Italy has the upper hand, losing only once to Spain in those 10 encounters (W4 D5). However, those draws do not include penalty shootout results. Thursday's match will be the fifth consecutive Euros tournament in which they have met, starting from 2008, which is also a record. Spain famously defeated Italy 4-0 in the 2012 final.
Italy is unbeaten in their last 10 games at the European Championships (W7 D3), a run that began with a 2-0 win over Spain at Euro 2016. Spain has won their last two matches against the Azzurri, but La Roja has never won three in a row against Italy.
Spain vs. Italy predictions for Thursday
- Final score: Spain 1, Italy 0 (+600 via BetMGM)
- Alvaro Morata anytime goal scorer (+195 via FanDuel)
- Best bet: Spain win + Under 2.5 goals (+320 via DraftKings)
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Spain vs. Italy score prediction
The Italians have proven to be tough opponents under head coach Luciano Spalletti. They are unbeaten in their last six games and have only conceded twice.
Spalletti's Serie A-winning Napoli had the second-best defense across Europe's top five leagues when they clinched the Scudetto in the 2022/23 season, shipping just 28 goals in 38 league games. He makes his teams hard to beat.
Spain won't be frustrated by Italy's defensive tactics. They will be happy to keep the ball and bide their time in attack. Until last Saturday's 3-0 win over Croatia, when the Croats kept the ball for 53.4% of the match, Spain had more possession than their opponents in each of their 136 competitive games since Euro 2008.
If the Azzurri choose to sit back, La Roja will be patient in their build-up. At +600, BetMGM's odds imply a probability of 14.3%, per our odds converter, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $60.
Best odds: +600 via BetMGM
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Spain vs. Italy anytime goal scorer prediction
Only David Villa (13) has scored more goals for Spain in Euros and World Cups than Morata (10). No other Spaniard has managed double figures for the country across the two competitions.
Morata opened La Roja's scoring in this tournament against Croatia last Saturday. Spain's captain has just had his best season in front of goal for Atletico Madrid, scoring 15 times in La Liga and netting five in the Champions League. Only Cristiano Ronaldo (14) and Michel Platini (9) have netted more goals than Morata (7) in the history of the Euros.
In the match against Croatia, no player had more shots on target than Morata. His xG was 0.69 in that match; his decisiveness could be the difference in Thursday's matchup against a resolute defense. At +195, a $10 bet will pay a profit of $19.50 and has an implied probability of 33.9%.
Best odds: +195 via FanDuel
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Spain vs. Italy best bet
Spain beat Italy 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League 12 months ago. Since then, the Italians have only lost once, a 3-1 defeat to England in qualifying for this tournament.
Under head coach Luis de la Fuente, Spain have lost just once in 11 competitive matches, winning their last seven in a row. In their last six games in all competitions, the Spaniards have shipped six goals, while the Italians have conceded two.
This match could be possession-based with few chances. As of Monday, Italy's 809 passes against Albania were the most by a team in a single game at this tournament. Both Italy and Spain have each conceded multiple goals in a match just once in their last ten outings.
With the likes of teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Fabian Ruiz, Nico Williams, and Morata, Spain have the added flair that could unlock the Italian defense and snatch t he winner. At +320, DraftKings' odds offer an implied probability of 23.8%, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $32 if it hits.
Best odds: +320 via DraftKings
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Spain vs. Italy game info
- When: Thursday, June 20 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Arena AufSchalke (Gelsenkirchen, Germany)
- How to watch: FOX, Fubo
- Favorite: Spain (+115 via bet365)
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Spain-Italy predictions made Tuesday at 2:45 p.m. ET.
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