In their first do-or-die contest at a major tournament, Georgia faces a Mount Everest-size task against Spain in the Round of 16 at Euro 2024, and we have our Spain-Georgia predictions based on the odds from our best soccer betting sites.
Nothing can replicate or overshadow the drama professional sports provide. Georgia surpassed everyone's expectations and defied the odds after qualifying for the knockout stage in their inaugural European Championships. Their prize? A one-off encounter against the tournament's in-form team.
Spain, the woolly mammoth-size favorites to win in 90 minutes, have the second-shortest Euro 2024 odds entering the win-or-go-home phase of the tournament. I'm sure you can guess where Georgia stand on that particular pecking order.
Spain have won six of seven previous contests against Georgia, with their only setback occurring in a 2016 friendly.
Spain vs. Georgia predictions for Sunday
- Final score: Spain 2 – Georgia 0 (+480 via FanDuel)
- Alvaro Morata anytime goal scorer (+100 via FanDuel)
- Best bet: Spain ML and Georgia not to score (-147 via BetMGM)
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Spain vs. Georgia score prediction
All of that “fortune favors the bold” stuff certainly pertains to Georgia, who probably deserved better against Turkey and took it to a shell-shocked Portuguese side that had already secured first place in the group prior to kickoff.
Invariably, Georgia will sit back and absorb relentless Spanish pressure, looking for an opportunity to deliver a counterpunch on the break.
Georgia's Giorgi Mamardashvili, who plays for Valencia in La Liga, was arguably the best goalkeeper in the group stage. He'll need to be even better against an irrepressible Spanish side that scored five goals in their first three matches.
Even if the underdogs concede early, don't expect Georgia's game plan to change. They'll be tough to break down but will be held off the scoresheet for the first time in the tournament. At +480, FanDuel's odds imply a probability of 17.24%, and a winning $10 wager will pay a profit of $48.
Best odds: +480 via FanDuel
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Spain vs. Georgia anytime goal scorer prediction
When in doubt, put your trust in Spain's talisman Alvaro Morata. The La Roja frontman was excellent in the group stage, scoring a goal and adding eight shots, four of which hit the target, despite playing only 19 minutes in the final match against Albania.
The 31-year-old had 2.22 shots on target per 90 minutes in the group stage and was Spain's most dangerous attacker. He's the focal point of most forward forays and finished with more expected goals (1.0) than Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams combined (0.9). That's unsurprising given Morata's the go-to target man. He also takes Spain's penalties, another reason to back him bulging the twine.
Georgia conceded eight expected goals in the first three matches, so Morata should be able to carve out at least one golden opportunity.
FanDuel's odds are particularly appealing, offering substantially better value than DraftKings (-165) and BetMGM (-159). The +100 odds imply a 50% probability, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $10. Jump on the wager quickly, as FanDuel may shorten the odds to align with the rest of our best sports betting apps.
Best odds: +100 via FanDuel
Spain vs. Georgia best bet
Spain has to go through, right? It won't be a cinch, as nothing ever is in the knockout stage of a major tournament. But Spain have won six of seven against Georgia and are far superior on paper. Georgia will offset a large portion of that Grand Canyon-size discrepancy with their unrivaled passion, unrelenting work rate, and organized structure.
However, Spain should prevail in 90 minutes. Georgia are dangerous on the counter, but Spain won't be caught off guard like Portugal was. In addition, Spain rested most of their starters in a meaningless match against Albania and will be the fresher of the two sides. This bet also provides a contingency if Spain lets loose and scores three or more.
At -147, BetMGM's odds imply a probability of 59.51%, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $6.80.
Best odds: -147 via BetMGM
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Spain vs. Georgia game info
- When: Sunday, June 30 (3 p.m. ET)
- Where: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne, Germany)
- How to watch: Fox Sports (U.S.), TSN (Canada)
- Favorite: Spain (-454 via BetMGM)
Spain-Georgia predictions made Friday at 2 p.m. ET.
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