The South Alabama Jaguars (1-2) visit Kidd Brewer Stadium to take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) on Sep. 19 in Boone, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Appalachian State is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).
The South Alabama vs. Appalachian State Over/Under is 63.5 total points.
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South Alabama vs Appalachian State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Appalachian State will win this game with 70.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both South Alabama and Appalachian State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
South Alabama vs Appalachian State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Alabama will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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South Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record
South Alabama is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -35.94% ROI).
- South Alabama is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
- South Alabama is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- South Alabama is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Appalachian State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Appalachian State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Appalachian State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Appalachian State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Appalachian State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Appalachian State is 9-3 (.562) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .430
Appalachian State is 6-5 (.545) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .407
Appalachian State is 3-2 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .403
Appalachian State is 8-3 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .343
Appalachian State’s WRs has gained 729 yards on 45 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Appalachian State has gained 4,794 yards on 373 receptions (12.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-31st-best among FBS skill players. South Alabama’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.