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South Alabama and Appalachian State get the college football landscape all to themselves as the only game on the Thursday slate, and we make some early predictions based on the odds for this conference tilt.
This is the conference opener for each of these Sun Belt rivals. Our South Alabama vs. Appalachian State early leans and odds take into account that the Mountaineers have won all four head-to-head meetings between these teams since 2015.
South Alabama is coming off its first victory of the season, an 87-10 blowout triumph over Northwestern State. But most of the bets tied to that contest were voided when the two teams agreed to shorten the game to just 54 minutes. Currently, the rules at most of our best sportsbooks dictate that 55 minutes is needed to validate wagers.
My early South Alabama vs. Appalachian State prediction
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Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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These two teams have met three times since 2018, and Appalachian State has won all three contests by a combined score of 113-17.
But the Jaguars have closed the gap considerably since then and entered the season as one of the contenders in the Sun Belt conference. That makes a spread north of a touchdown a great value on the underdogs.
South Alabama won 17 combined games in 2022 and 2023. Last year also could have been so much better than a 7-6 finish (and a 4-4 conference record) if not for going 1-4 in one-score outings. This is still a Jaguars team that beat No. 16 Oklahoma State 33-7 on the road last season.
Meanwhile, Appalachian State is averaging 26.3 points per game this season, as its offense is still gelling while breaking in four new starters on the line.
The Mountaineers have struggled early in the season for the last two years, starting 3-4 last year and 3-3 th e year before. So this is a great opportunity to take advantage of those early-season swoons with a live underdog.
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South Alabama vs. Appalachian State live odds
See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 4 game.
- Appalachian State best odds: -258 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 72.07%
- South Alabama best odds: +215 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 31.75%
Our best sports betting sites are pretty aligned with the moneyline odds, as there's just a seven-cent gap between DraftKings (-258) and FanDuel (-265) in Appalachian State's odds to win outright.
Given that Appalachian State appeared in the conference champion ship game last season and is playing at home in this matchup, any movement before kickoff should go in its favor.
- Appalachian State best odds: -7 (-110) via Caesars
- South Alabama best odds: +7.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Appalachian State has recorded 24-plus-point wins over South Alabama in each of the last three meetings. The Mountaineers are coming off a road victory over an AAC opponent (East Carolina). That's why I expect many of the best live betting sites that are at -7 will move to -7.5 before kickoff, as opposed to the ones at -7.5 going down to the key number of seven.
- Over best odds: 62.5 (-110) via Caesars
- Under best odds: 64.5 (-110) via BetMGM
It's unusual for there to be a two-point gap between the high and low end of the total this early in the week.
However, South Alabama's offense turned heads with a n 87-point outburst during a game that did not even reach its natural conclusion last week. That's likely to catch the attention of Over backers before kickoff.
How to watch South Alabama vs. Appalachian State
- When: Thursday, Sept. 19
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, N.C.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 64 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
- Favorite: Appalachian State (-258 via DraftKings)
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