We see a mismatch between the competent SMU Mustangs and the bottom-feeding Temple Owls as we make our SMU vs. Temple prediction based on the best college football odds.
SMU's biggest challenge as it takes on arguably the worst college football team in the country on Friday night may be the travel to Philadelphia.
The Owls' difficult season may be primed to continue as they may be without their starting quarterback once again. E.J. Warner, a rare bright spot for a rebuilding Temple squad, missed Week 7 with a concussion and is questionable to play Friday.
Here is our best SMU vs. Temple prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SMU vs. Temple prediction
Temple might legitimately be the worst team in the country this season in college football as the Owls rank 132nd out of 133 FBS programs in overall adjusted efficiency. Quarterback EJ Warner, son of NFL Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, had been a bright spot for the offense in a number of games this season. But with Warner absent from last week's game against North Texas due to injury, Temple got blitzed 45-14 by a decidedly mediocre Mean Green squad.
If Warner sits out Friday's game, too – and the movement on the point spread suggests he may – you're looking at a Temple offense that ranks second from the bottom of FBS in adjusted offensive efficiency using a backup QB to try and put up points against the 29th-ranked scoring defense in the nation.
On the other side, Temple allows 40 points per game (128th in FBS). SMU has a case for being one of the best 25 teams in the nation, ranking 32nd in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. Though SMU must go on the road for this AAC matchup, Temple is 1-3 ATS at home and 1-6 ATS overall on the year. It just doesn't matter where they've played, they've played terribly.
The movement on the spread suggests this is going to be a beatdown. I would suggest the movement hasn't gone far enough to reflect just how big of a mismatch this game could be.
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SMU vs. Temple best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20.5 | -20.5 | -20.5 | -20.5 | -20.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
There is no advantage to be gleaned from odds shopping on this spread across our recommended best sports betting sites as the current board lists SMU at -20.5 with standard -110 odds no matter where you look.
That could change throughout the week as news is clarified on EJ Warner's status. If Warner is ruled out, we are confident in SMU as a four-star play up to -23.5 and as a three-star play to -26.5. Even if Warner is announced as active, we would stick with our SMU side and likely benefit from some positive line movement for our cause.
SMU vs. Temple odds
SMU vs. Temple odds analysis
SMU opened as a 14.5-point road favorite and has seen the spread spike to -20.5 leading up to Friday's game. Sixty-three percent of wagers have been placed on SMU.
The total opened at 57.5 and has dropped by a couple of points to between 54.5 and 55.5 across our best sportsbooks. The Over has seen 65% of the wagers.
SMU vs. Temple game info
- When: Friday, Oct. 20, 2023 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 63 Degrees, 9 mph winds, 64% PoP
SMU-Temple prediction made Wednesday at 3:50 p.m. ET.
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