The SMU Mustangs (2-1) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Fort Worth.
TCU is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The SMU vs. TCU Over/Under is 63.5 total points.
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SMU vs TCU Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 68.2% confidence.
SMU vs TCU Spread Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and TCU, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.00 Units / 23% ROI)
TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+3.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- TCU have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Lavine has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Kerley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Moochie Dixon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Savion Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jared Wiley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Chandler Morris has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Chandler Morris has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Emani Bailey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- SMU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- SMU is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- SMU is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
TCU is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- TCU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -71.7% ROI
- TCU is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- TCU is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
SMU was winless (0-1) when throwing at least 1 interception in the 2022 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .288
SMU is winless (0-6) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .284
SMU is 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– tied for best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .382
SMU is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .415
TCU was 10-2 (.833) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2022 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .414
TCU was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .367
TCU is 9-2 (.643) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .353
TCU is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .397
TCU’s TEs has 14 receptions in 3 games (4.7 per game) this season — tied for third-best among Big 12 TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 15.7 receptions per game this season — tied for 28th-best among FBS defenses.
TCU’s offense has thrown for 902 passing yards in 3 games (300.7 YPG) this season — 23rd-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense has allowed just 180.0 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-best among FBS defenses.