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The SMU Mustangs begin their first season in the ACC with a road game against the rebuilding Nevada Wolf Pack, and they're trading as massive favorites to begin their campaign with an easy win.
Based on the on-field talent discrepancy between these two teams, I'm all but certain that the Mustangs are going to win. But when making SMU vs. Nevada predictions for Week 0, it's about finding the best value plays when these two teams take the field.
Preston Stone and the Mustangs' offense are going to have a field day against the weak Wolf Pack defense, as we laid out in our college football Week 0 expert picks.
But have the Wolf Pack made enough improvements on the offensive or defensive end to cover a huge spread?
Best SMU vs. Nevada picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Game pick: SMU -27.5 (+120 via bet365) vs. Nevada ????
- Player prop: Brendon Lewis Under 128.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???
SMU vs. Nevada prediction: Week 0
The Mustangs opened as 22.5-point favorites, and the spread rose to 27 before long. At that number, bettors started to back the Wolf Pack and the spread has dropped to 24.5 or 25 at all of the best sports betting sites.
I have no problem taking the Mustangs at 24.5 for -110, but there is value to be had by taking an alt-line in a game they should win with ease.
I'm looking at them to win this game by at least four touchdowns, a feat they accomplished four times last season. Three of the five best sports betting apps are offering an alternative spread of -27.5. DraftKings is offering a price of +104, while bet365 is offering the best price at +120.
Stone returns as the starting quarterback for an offense that averaged 38.7 points a year ago. He gets to start his 2024 campaign against a Nevada defense that allowed 33.4 points and 442.8 total yards per game in 2023.
For as bad as the Wolf Pack were defensively, they were even worse offensively. They averaged the fifth-fewest points per game and barely cracked 300 yards per contest. The Wolf Pack may not hit double digits in this game, while the Mustangs will likely score in the 40s.
Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%
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SMU vs. Nevada player prop
Player props for this game are tough. Though Stone and Mustangs' starting running back Jaylan Knighton should have huge days, there is a chance that they sit for the majority of the second half. If that's the case, then solid first halves could give way to frustrating losses for bettors.
Instead of taking an SMU player, we're going to back Brendon Lewis' Under. The Wolf Pack's starting quarterback isn't much of a passer. He threw for more than 200 yards just once in 2023, and he topped 128 yards only four times.
The Mustangs allowed just 188.4 passing yards per game one season ago. Instead, they leaned heavily on running back Sean Dollars, who is featured in our college football Week 0 predictions & best bets.
The Wolf Pack could fall behind by so much that Lewis has to throw to catch up. Or he could simply be benched. Only DraftKings and FanDuel have a line available for Lewis at this time.
However, DraftKings isn't offering the Under. It's asking -130 for the Over, which implies that it will have his Under at +100 or better if it becomes available. Play FanDuel for now, but keep an eye on DraftKings.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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SMU vs. Nevada odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
SMU vs. Nevada game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 24
- Kick off: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev.
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 63 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 11-mph winds
- Favorite: SMU (-3500 via FanDuel)
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