An AAC clash between the East Carolina Pirates and SMU Mustangs is the second contest of a Thursday night doubleheader in college football, and we have you covered with our best SMU vs. East Carolina prediction based on the best college football odds.
SMU is one of five AAC teams with a 1-0 conference record, and it's also one of just three teams above .500 at 3-2.
Meanwhile, East Carolina is one of only two 1-4 teams in the conference. Its 105 points scored are the third-fewest of all AAC teams through five games.
As part of our college football predictions for Week 7, here is our best SMU vs. East Carolina prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SMU vs. East Carolina prediction: Week 7
SMU was picked to finish third in the preseason AAC poll and received three first-place votes after returning 16 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last year. And while the Mustangs may be even better than their 3-2 record suggests after both losses came against Big 12 teams (Oklahoma and TCU), this point spread has moved in East Carolina's favor, and we agree with that movement.
Pirates head coach Mike Houston went 7-14 over his first two years at the school, but he's guided the team to 15 victories over the last two campaigns. His teams have improved in the final SP+ rankings each of the previous two seasons (finishing 63rd last year), so while the team lost a 3,700-yard passer, a 1,400-yard rusher, and two 1,000-yard receivers from last year, Houston is too good of an offensive mind to have his team's struggles continue much longer.
East Carolina plays at a slow enough pace on offense (averaging more than 27 seconds between plays) to frustrate a high-powered SMU offense that averaged 37.2 points per game and 472.9 yards of total offense per game last season. The Pirates average five 10-yard rushes per game, and their defense improved on its 36% Success Rate entering last week and held a Rice offense that had been averaging 35.2 points per game well below its scoring average (24 points). The Pirates outgained the Owls by 114 yards and held the ball for nearly 10 minutes longer, which is a formula that will pay off with success going forward.
The Pirates had been experimenting with a two-quarterback system, but Alex Flinn played every snap last game, resulting in his best QBR of the previous four games while attempting a season-high 44 passes. Consistency at the position will only help the team moving forward, and that success will start this week against a Mustangs defense that ran ks outside the top 80 in Havoc and PFF's Coverage rankings.
East Carolina has been an underdog of 12 or more points in the last two meetings with SMU and has covered by an average of better than 20 points. Thus, this is a three-star play supporting the Mustangs hanging tough as home underdogs once again.
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SMU vs. East Carolina best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +11 | +10.5 | +10.5 | +10.5 | +10.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
DraftKings is our go-to shop as East Carolina supporters, as it is the only one of our five best sports betting apps with a spread as high as +11. The lower -105 juice at BetMGM suggests that it may be closer to joining DraftKings at +11, but that is something to be monitored in the coming days. Both SMU and East Carolina are 2-3 ATS this season.
SMU vs. East Carolina odds
SMU vs. East Carolina odds analysis
This SMU-East Carolina point spread has seen wild swings since opening at -12.5 at FanDuel on Sunday morning. The line dropped four points to -8.5 within three hours of the initial post but rebounded twice to -9.5 and -10.5 later that afternoon. BetMGM's number rose from -9.5 to -10.5 overnight from Sunday into Monday as well. Early point spread wagers are dead even at 50/50.
All of our  ;best sports betting sites are in unison with a total of 50.5, which has decreased considerably from the look-ahead line of 55.5. While most sportsbooks have come down from a higher total to get to 50.5, the total ticked up a half-point at Caesars from an opening number of 50. The Under has gotten the slight majority of early wagers (56/44 split). The Under is 4-1 in SMU's five games and has cashed in three of East Carolina's five contests.
SMU vs. East Carolina game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 77 degrees, 22% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph SE
SMU-East Carolina prediction made 10/9/23 at 4:14 p.m. ET.
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