Shared statistical traits reveal top Super Bowl contenders
One of my favorite things to do after the NFL’s regular season is to update my analysis of the shared traits of past Super Bowl teams to compare them to our current crop of NFL title hopefuls. The traits I take were snapshots of the last 44 Super Bowl teams at the end of the regular season, and my assumption is that though the teams involved may change, what it takes to be a champion in the NFL for the most part does not. This can help a great deal for bettors looking to make futures wagers, and I suppose to a lesser degree, those betting game lines and totals as well. With that in mind, read on as I share the list of qualifications and the chart detailing the resumes of the 14 playoff teams.
First, a quick review. One of my favorite habits in looking for futures wagers in all sports is to compare the resumes of current teams with those of past champions. I feel that it is a good way to discover which teams have the pedigree to accomplish something special. I look at all kinds of varying characteristics, from Strength Ratings to momentum to raw statistics. My favorite place to use this methodology has been for the NCAA Tournament each March. I just did an NCAA hoops midseason edition for VSiN.com.
For the NFL version, I’m going to look at the teams vying for the Super Bowl. Naturally, the futures odds at the various sportsbooks reveal the feelings of the experts as to which teams they feel have the best shot to win, but these aren’t always resume-built, more often they are formed simply from won-lost records, recent games, path to the title, or even from simply where the most money is coming in. My method of finding shared characteristics from past success stories provides bettors more concrete evidence from which to base wagers. So, let’s take a look at some of the key statistical characteristics each team boasts now in comparison to those of the Super Bowl teams of the last 22 years.
The stats I have chosen are mostly “body of work” type of figures, in other words, they encompass the entire regular season. That said, my Bettors Ratings and Momentum Ratings do reflect a more recent status of teams. This is a list of the 27 statistical/strength characteristics I will be using to qualify this year’s teams for their worthiness of winning a Super Bowl title next month.
- Steve Makinen’s Power Rating
- Steve Makinen’s Effective Strength Indicator
- Steve Makinen’s Bettors’ Rating
- Steve Makinen’s Momentum Ratings
- Won-Lost Record
- ATS Won-Lost Record
- Offensive PPG
- Offensive Rushing Yards per Game
- Offensive Rushing Yards per Attempt
- Offensive Passing Yards per Game
- Offensive Passing Yards per Attempt
- Offensive Total Yards per Game
- Total Offensive Yards per Play
- Offensive Third-Down Conversion Percentage
- Defensive PPG
- Defensive Rushing Yards per Game
- Defensive Rushing Yards per Attempt
- Defensive Passing Yards per Game
- Defensive Passing Yards per Attempt
- Defensive Total Yards per Game
- Total Defensive Yards per Play
- Defensive Third-Down Conversion Percentage
- Sacks
- Scoring Differential
- Yards per Play Differential
- Turnover Differential
- Average Time of Possession
In general, when I do this type of exercise, I’m typically looking for teams that share the same traits as 80% or so of the sample group I’m studying. So, to find separations in the teams’ stats/ranks, of the last 44 Super Bowl participants, I’m looking for about 35 teams or so to fit the bill. You will find the qualifying teams for each trait in the chart below. Of the Super Bowl teams since 2001, AT THE END OF THE REGULAR SEASON, approximately 80% of them:
— Had a Steve Makinen Power Rating of 28 or higher