This checklist is essentially the foundation for my bowl handicapping. I personally believe that you have to have a handle on these variables for each game or you won’t be successful. This past year it worked very well for me in the Guide, as in picking all 42 bowl game sides and totals, I wound up 49-35, a solid 58.3% result. It wasn’t my best bowl season, but I will take 58.3% anytime, especially with the increasing volatility of the lines in these games each year.
There is absolutely nothing more important in bowl games nowadays than each team’s motivation for competing, and unfortunately, as we’ve witnessed in recent years, the disparity in the motivation levels of teams in any given game can reach levels not seen before. If you’re on the wrong side of that argument, perhaps by betting too early or by overlooking a massive factor, your bet can be done by the end of the first quarter. When you’re right, though, these bowl games can be very fun to sit back and enjoy.
Keep in mind that as you see the list of factors, I have found that the numerical order of them is unimportant, but all of them individually are important. There will also naturally be conflicts in different points of analysis. In cases like this, I recommend using your own discernment as to what factor you feel is more important.
If you’re wondering why I chose to name this article as I have, as not all of these factors would be considered by definition “motivational.” The way I see it, anything that goes into a team’s mindset or physical readiness can affect its motivational level. Over the next few weeks, be sure to stay on top of the news wires for stories that can affect each team. There is always unexpected news stories that affect these games. You’ll be thrilled to know that VSiN has come up with its own page for tracking key bowl news this season, and it is manned by our own Adam Burke. You can find it here in the opt-out tracker.
Here are the seven motivational factors:
1) Personnel Disruptions
Many things can cause distractions for a team between the final game of the regular season and the bowl contest. The glaring examples include coaches leaving, players getting into trouble for grades or behavior, and of course, the ever-growing number of players choosing to transfer or opt-out of games to prepare for the NFL draft.
The player news can happen at any time and for any game. Case in point, in the 2021 Peach Bowl, a New Year’s 6-level game, Pittsburgh’s star quarterback Kenny Pickett chose to opt out of his program’s biggest bowl game in decades and the Panthers looked nothing like the team that earned that bowl bid.
A couple of days later, two of Ohio State’s top wide receivers watched the Rose Bowl from home as they prepped for the NFL draft, only to see teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up a record performance in their absence. One of the biggest stories a year ago came in one of the last bowl games of the season, as Purdue was without its head coach, starting quarterback, top wide receivers, and several other starters as it prepared to take on LSU in the Citrus Bowl. The line moved from -6.5 to -15, and the line wasn’t anywhere near high enough. LSU rolled 63-7.
As usual, there has been a bevy of coaching activity in college football that will be affecting the bowl games. Here are the main changes to watch for.
- Fresno State’s Jeff Tedford will be skipping the New Mexico Bowl for health concerns.
- Syracuse fired former head coach Dino Babers prior to the season’s end and named Nunzio Campanile to serve as interim head coach.
- Troy’s Jon Sumrall has agreed to take the open head-coaching job at Tulane. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will serve as the interim head coach for the Birmingham Bowl game vs. Duke. However, the Blue Devils have their own coaching issue, as Mike Elko has left for Texas A&M. Associate head coach Trooper Taylor will serve as the interim head coach.
- James Madison, off its huge season, will move on without head coach Curt Cignetti, as he climbs the coaching ladder by moving on to Indiana. Offensive line coach/associate head coach Damian Wroblewski will serve as the acting head coach for the Dukes' first-ever bowl game.
- Tulane’s Willie Fritz has taken the head coach job at Houston. Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle will lead a bunch of assistants who will also be going to Houston in the interim role.
- Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher was fired late in the regular season, so interim head coach Elijah Robinson will continue to serve in that role for the Texas Bowl. The Aggies also lost offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
- The Oregon State staff took a hit for the bowl after head coach Jonathan Smith left for Michigan State. Passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson takes over in the interim for the Sun Bowl matchup with Notre Dame.
Distractions don’t always turn out negatively for a team, however, so be careful not to assume that as you assess the specific situations. Plenty of bettors fell victim to it in the 2021 Alamo Bowl game between Oklahoma and Oregon, as Sooners’ players reacted very well to longtime former coach Bob Stoops coming back in place of the departed Lincoln Riley in their bowl game, routing Oregon 47-32. Some teams may take a coaching change, key injury(s), or backups’ chance to step in for opt-outs and use it as a motivational source.
There are several player availability scenarios that will play out in the time leading up to the respective games. Here they are broken up into various categories:
Injuries to starting quarterbacks?
- New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia is listed as questionable for the New Mexico Bowl game.
- Rice QB JT Daniels has medically retired after concussion issues.
- SMU QB Preston Stone is out for the year, but his team did rally to win the AAC title game without him.
- With Tyler Van Dyke having committed to Wisconsin and backup Emory Williams injured, expect #3 Jacurri Brown to start at QB for Miami.
- In perhaps one of the biggest quarterback injury stories of all time, Florida State QB Jordan Travis is out for the year. That injury cost the Seminoles a CFP berth upon nothing more than perception. Backup Tate Rodemaker, who missed the ACC title game win, should be back to take on Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Quarterbacks opting out
- Ohio U’s Kurtis Rourke
- Tulane’s Michael Pratt (could transfer, could opt out for draft)
- North Carolina’s Drake Maye
- USC’s Caleb Williams
- Heisman Trophy winner LSU’s Jayden Daniels indicated, “we'll see” about playing in the ReliaQuest Bowl
- Notre Dame’s QB Sam Hartman
There are several other key players or groups of players opting out or hitting the transfer portal. The teams that seem to be most affected include Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oregon, although for the Ducks, QB Bo Nix has indicated he will play in the Fiesta Bowl.
Quarterbacks in the transfer portal (follow the news wires as some of these players may still play for their current teams):
- Miami (OH) – Aveon Smith
- Boise State – Taylen Green
- UCLA – Dante Moore
- Marshall – Cam Fancher
- Duke – Riley Leonard
- Coastal Carolina – Grayson McCall
- Minnesota – Athan Kaliakmanis
- Miami – Tyler Van Dyke
- Kansas State – Will Howard
- Oklahoma – Dillon Gabriel
- Oregon State – DJ Uiagalelei
- Ohio State – Kyle McCord
- Toledo – DeQuan Finn
The players opting out/transferring situation is one we will have to continue to watch all the way up until kickoff. Thankfully, unlike the 2020 and 2021 seasons, we won’t be having entire teams opt out. However, bettors have to realize how big of a deal this opting-out situation can be.
I already mentioned the Pittsburgh scenario of 2021, but the game affected even more than that was the Quick Lane Bowl game between Nevada and Western Michigan. Nevada’s star QB Carson Strong, along with head coach Jay Norvell and several of Strong’s most prominent teammates, opted out of the Detroit festivities, and the line moved from Wolf Pack -7.5 to +6.5, a full 14-point swing. What was left of the Nevada roster was pummeled by the more inspired Broncos, 52-24. We’ve already seen a similar line move in this year’s Cotton Bowl matchup between Missouri and Ohio State.
Brutally, this trend is gaining more steam, not less, yet it remains to be seen what effect a normal prep time between regular-season finale and bowl games will have on this phenomenon. This has the potential to blow up the bowl system as we know it. When you combine this with coaching changes for bowl teams, it’s clear that situations such as these can make for a hectic and emotional disruption in game preparation for student-athletes.
2) Big Line/Total Movements
I indicated earlier that I am convinced that players and coaches know the point spreads in their bowl games. I am not convinced, however, that they follow line moves like actual bettors do. As they say, things like this are best left to the pros. I also inferred earlier that it is impossible to quantify the distractions a team faces in its bowl preparations.
Perhaps line movements are the best and only way to even think about doing it. Using only the 2021 and 2022 bowl season as evidence, oddsmakers essentially paved the road for bettors, as those that followed the action in the 38 games that saw 3-point or bigger line moves went 25-13 ATS.
Therefore, while I wouldn’t actually consider a line moving a lot in a bowl game a motivating factor for a team, the move itself should stand as a red flag for you when wondering if some unusual situation might be “distracting” a team. In general, oddsmakers are sharp enough at this point in the season to set lines that stay steady over the month-long period of bowl games.
In fact, only 55 of about 939 bowl games over the last 31 years have seen line moves of 4.5 points or more from their opening number, and that includes games where major player injury, opt-out, or suspension announcements were made after opening. However, it happened 11 times in 2021 and six times last year. In fact, only 20 total games in that two-year span saw line moves of 1/2-point or less, and four of those were in the playoff semifinals and title games.
Recreational bettors should consider themselves “lucky” because the experts are basically paving the road to bowl winnings by telling you which team to bet on. As I just mentioned, 55 games over the last 30 bowl seasons have seen line movements of 4.5 or more points. Here is the trend:
In bowl games between 1992-2022 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 35-19-1 ATS (64.8%).
Again, in most cases, line moves this big are typically caused by some distracting factor, such as a coaching change, QB or mass opt-out, suspension, or injury, and rarely due to a “miss” by oddsmakers. In short, with a 64.8% ATS success rate, let the experts interpret the impact that the distraction will have for you. Recognize though that you can only take advantage of these findings by waiting until as close to kickoff as possible.
For this season, we already have some games that will be qualifying, assuming there is no contraction back to the original line. These are the list of games in which the line has already moved at least 4.5 points to one team. That team is in UPPER CASE:
- JACKSONVILLE STATE (+1 to -3.5) vs. LA Lafayette
- GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+1.5 to -3.5) vs. Ohio U
- UTAH STATE (+3.5 to -1) vs. Georgia State
- MISSOURI (+6 to -2.5) vs. Ohio State
- WYOMING (+1.5 to -3) vs. Toledo
Though no other games officially qualified as of press time, there could be more by the time the games start. In fact, the day prior to me writing this, Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman opted out, and the line went from -10.5 to -6.5 in favor of the Irish. It could go lower to qualify for the threshold.
Concerning totals, there are always a lot more games that move 4.5 points or more off their opening number by game time, but the reason for this can often be the game day weather in addition to all of the other circumstances previously discussed.
Regardless of the reason, bettors have been right at a 75-56-1 (57.3%) rate on totals moving 4.5 points or more since I first started studying bowl games in 1992. In the 2022-23 bowl season, bettors drove the totals off their opening numbers by 4.5 points or more in 11 games, going 7-4. Again, keep an eye on the numbers as you approach game time, but as of this writing, these are the games that currently show total moves meeting the criteria:
- Miami (OH)-Appalachian State: 51.5 to 45.5 (UNDER)
- Georgia Southern-Ohio U: 54.5 to 48 (UNDER)
The Syracuse-South Florida game showed the biggest upward movement as of press time, from 57.5 to 61, while the Notre Dame-Oregon State total plummeted 3.5 points after the Hartman news was announced.
3) Excitement level for the game
It’s natural for athletes at different levels to gear up more for some games or opponents than others. This point is exacerbated in bowl games, as quite frankly, some teams are happy to be there, and others are disappointed. Teams playing in a bowl game for the first time ever, or the first time in many years, are going to naturally be more excited than those who perhaps underperformed this season or are going to a bowl game locale that is below their normal standards. While impossible to quantify this excitement level, let me assure you that if you don’t consider this factor, all the stats in the world are no good to you.
Over the last five years, I have listed games in this exact location in which I thought there was a clear excitement level difference for the game. I was 24-21 ATS in these, not overwhelming success but better than losing. Here is a list of potential games that could be defined by one team’s mindset. These are solely my opinion. See if you agree, or be sure to formulate your own opinions on other games. Again, whether or not a team really “shows up” to play is usually the difference between winning and covering.
– JACKSONVILLE STATE played its first full season of FBS football this year and won eight games behind one of the nation’s best rushing attacks. Most prognosticators had the Gamecocks projected to at or near the bottom of Conference USA at the outset of the season. Not only is this team playing like it belongs in FBS, but it’s also been assigned an opponent in the New Orleans Bowl that is on a downward trend, and at 6-6, probably doesn’t care nearly as much about the game in Louisiana-Lafayette.
– JAMES MADISON, like Jacksonville State, is playing in a first-ever bowl game after some bending of the rules by the NCAA. Does that make the Dukes any less worthy? Absolutely not, and their eligibility should have never been clouded by some archaic policies regarding ascension to the FBS level. If a team is good enough to win at a rate to earn a bowl bid, so be it. Could you imagine the level of bowl game a team like South Dakota State or past NDSU teams would qualify for if they were FBS? In any case, JMU won its first 10 games of the season before losing out on possible perfection to Appalachian State. was there for that contest, and it was evident that the entire Harrisonburg community is behind this program. Unfortunately, head coach Curt Cignetti was gobbled up by Indiana, but surely these players are as galvanized as ever to prove themselves against an Air Force team that wilted down the stretch.
– NORTHWESTERN's football program was in shambles this summer, reeling from the controversy surrounding former head coach Pat Fitzgerald. After a one-win season a year ago, there wasn’t a single expert out there who could have foreseen a seven-win campaign in 2023 and a berth in the Las Vegas Bowl. This program has a history of playing well when not much is expected of it. Now that the cloud has cleared and the Wildcats believe fully in new head coach David Braun, they get a date with a Utah club that expected more this season and has struggled recently in bowl games.
– SAN JOSE STATE rather quietly became one of the hottest teams in all of college football down the stretch, winning its last six games while going 5-1 ATS following a 1-5 start. After reeling early, the Spartans' offense exploded for 38.7 PPG in the winning streak, led, of course, by starting QB Chevan Cordeiro. Not only will this team be jacked to wrap up this amazing finish in fine fashion, but Cordeiro has the added motivation of getting to play his final collegiate game where it all began, in Hawaii. The Honolulu native played his first four college seasons at the University of Hawaii, who plays its home games at the same facility as the Hawaii Bowl.
– SOUTH FLORIDA is another team that wasn’t expected to do much in 2023, except by people like myself who had the Bulls as Over their season win total prop. They even went without expected starting QB Gerry Bohanon for the entire campaign. However, backup Byrum Brown stepped in and had a huge season as a dual-threat quarterback, culminating with a big effort in the bowl-clinching season finale win over Charlotte. He leads his team into the Boca Raton Bowl against a 6-6 Syracuse team that expected better after a 4-0 start to the season. How do I know the Orange expected more? Well, they fired their head coach before the season ended. A win for them won’t save what turned into an ugly season.
– BOWLING GREEN was pretty excited last year to play in the Quick Lane Bowl, having come off a six-year stretch in which it won a total of 16 games. The Falcons may have been a bit starry-eyed from the experience, as they eventually lost 24-19 to New Mexico State despite being favored. Well, how many teams get the chance for a do over? BGSU plays in this bowl game for a second straight season and gets the added motivation of taking on the lone 5-7 team in bowl play, Minnesota. And, oh yeah, the Golden Gophers represent the Big Ten Conference, the league every Group of 5 team in the Midwest looks up to.
– TEXAS STATE was one of the country’s most active teams in the transfer portal this season and basically rebuilt itself under first-year head coach GJ Kinne following a string of eight straight seasons with four or fewer wins. Led by Auburn transfer QB TJ Finley, the Bobcats put up big numbers offensively, scoring 38 PPG, an improvement of nearly 17 PPG over 2022. For the First Responders Bowl, TSU gets a chance to wrap it all up in fine fashion against a Rice team that put up some good offensive numbers itself this season, mostly through the air, but will be without its starting QB JT Daniels.
– LOUISVILLE’s new head coach Jeff Brohm couldn’t possibly have expected the success his team, and alma mater, achieved in 2023, winning 10 games and earning a berth in their first-ever ACC title game. The Cardinals did almost everything well this season and, from the looks of it, will go into the bowl game with as clean of a roster as anyone, devoid of mass opt-outs, transfers, or injuries. The same thing can certainly not be said for their opponent in the Holiday Bowl, USC. The Trojans melted down after a hot start and will be without QB Caleb Williams and several other players for the game. And another thing, USC is playing pretty close to home in San Diego, but don’t think for a second their devastated fan base will make the trip for a game they could be dubbing the disappointment bowl.
– To show you how galvanized SMU remained even after losing QB Preston Stone to a season-ending injury prior to the AAC title game, the Mustangs put up perhaps their best performance of the season that day in turning back Tulane. The defense was particularly feisty in holding the Green Wave to just 269 yards, a season-low. The 11-win campaign was the program’s best in over 40 years. The reward is a date with a mediocre Boston College squad that lost its final three games and failed to score more than 22 points in any of the last five contests. Despite the game being at Fenway Park in Boston, SMU is a huge double-digit favorite. If that isn’t a tell from oddsmakers, I don’t know what is.
– MISSOURI has found the going quite tough since joining the SEC, but the Tigers enjoyed a big year and won double-digit games for the first time since 2014. They have a chance to win their first bowl game since the end of that season as well, but the team standing in their way is the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes. Of course, I use the term “mighty” very loosely in this case, as it seems that the Cotton Bowl is the last place the program wants to be after yet another loss to Michigan to close the regular season. Not only was this OSU team far from its usual standards in terms of offensive capability, but for this bowl game, it seems that more key players are opting out or transferring than looking to play. There is no doubt in my mind that Missouri wants to be here a lot more. We’ll see if that’s the difference, but if line moves are any indication, the experts behind the counter feel the same as I do. The Tigers went from 6-point dogs at open ing to -2.5 favorites at last check.
– MICHIGAN has endured quite a bit this season both on and off the field but stands tall at the end of the regular season. In fact, the Wolverines are on top of the college football world, having wrapped up the top seed in the CFP. The reward for that feat is a date with mighty Alabama, and bettors don’t like the Wolverines' chances. Even as 1.5-point favorites in the Rose Bowl matchups, Michigan is getting backed by only 16% of the handle at DraftKings as I write. Oddsmakers are not budging on the number, however, insisting they have the right gauge on these teams. Truthfully, head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team has been the best team in the country wire-to-wire in 2023, and the line, as well as the team’s pessimistic reaction to facing Tide, might not accurately reflect how much better they were. Harbaugh will have them mentally squared away by the time January 1st arrives.
I’m sure you can come up with some other examples of games with reasons to question a team’s motivation, but these are the ones I thought of off the bat recalling my knowledge of past bowl seasons.
4) Motivation of the Point Spread
They may say otherwise, but don’t let the coaches and players fool you. They know the point spreads of these bowl games they are playing in, especially in this day of expanding sports betting regulation across the country. That said, athletes take a lot out of the respect they are getting heading into a bowl game. Nowhere is this respect level more clearly illustrated than in the point spread. Teams that feel slighted by this number tend to work harder to prepare and “prove everyone wrong” than those on the opposite side of the line. Those teams may perhaps take it easier in their preparation or, even worse, discount their opponent altogether. Be careful, though, it’s not always the motivation of being an underdog that drives a team. Sometimes favorites feel they aren’t getting enough respect. That can be just as powerful. Looking back at the last three bowl seasons, here are some examples of some of the logic I have put into building this factor:
In 2020, I was 3-1 in this factor #4, with one of my five calls getting canceled. The highlight game was Ohio State, who seemed to be fueled by the disrespect it was receiving from oddsmakers as it got ready for its playoff semifinal matchup vs. Clemson.
In 2021, I picked a record-high 11 games in this section and went 7-4 ATS. Perhaps the showcase game being the Peach Bowl matchup between Michigan State and Pitt. Both teams earned New Year’s Six bowl bids, but apparently, only the Spartans valued the spot, with some of Pitt’s best players opting out. Even still, oddsmakers made Sparty only a 1.5-point favorite at the time of picking. MSU played the disrespected role well and eventually won 31-21 as a 3.5-point closing line favorite.
Last year, I picked 10 games in this spot, and those teams went 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS, highlighted by big upset wins from teams like Tennessee and Middle Tennessee State, teams I figured should have been favored.
For the last three seasons, I now own a record of 18-7 ATS for Motivational Factor #4.
With that in mind, here are 10 fresh point-spread scenarios that catch my eye for 2023-24:
– MIAMI (OH) was fantastic this season, even after losing QB Brett Gabbert to a season-ending injury. The RedHawks won 11 games, including an upset of Toledo in the MAC title game. Now, they’ll go into their Cure Bowl game as a sizeable 5.5-point underdog to an Appalachian State team that has become used to playing better than it did this season. Miami will be without QB Aveon Smith, but why should that matter to this galvanized team that allowed just 16.2 PPG.
– TROY enjoyed a second straight fabulous regular season, capped off by winning the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Trojans are a regular fixture in bowl games annually, but this year will mark the first time that they get to prove themselves against a Power 5 foe in a bowl contest. Oddsmakers have them as better than TD favorites, and you can be sure they will be anxious to prove that line valid.
– UTSA is a 13-point favorite against Marshall in the Frisco Bowl, played in its home state nonetheless. My question is whether or not it is even enough? In my humble opinion, Marshall could realistically be the worst team playing in a bowl game this season. Besides being outscored by 5 PPG, look at the way the Herd closed their season. In their final eight games, all against bowl teams, they were 2-6. The two wins came against 6-6 clubs. In four of the games, they were held to 9 points or fewer, and they lost by at least 11 five times. The Roadrunners deserve better than this matchup.
– UNLV was one of the country’s most pleasant surprises in 2023, coming together for a 9-4 season under new head coach Barry Odom. The Runnin’ Rebels even appeared in their first Mountain West title game. They topped the 30-point mark nine times, proving they could score on just about everyone. Now, Odom’s team finds itself as a huge double-digit underdog to a Kansas team that hasn’t won a bowl game since 2008. The Jayhawks are growing as a program, and winning a bowl game would seem to be the next natural step. Covering this big of a number probably isn’t in the list of Guaranteed Rate Bowl goals.
– TULANE, it would seem by the point spread, will probably be without stud QB Michael Pratt for the Military Bowl against Virginia Tech. Even taking Pratt and head coach Willie Fritz out of the lineup, I had a hard time stretching my power ratings to where the Hokies would be a favorite of more than a TD. Are the rest of the Green Wave’s players, who won 11 games this season, not interested in winning another bowl game? Why wouldn’t they be? They have a chance for back-to-back 12-win seasons. And here they are a big underdog to a 6-6 team. Tech was a major hit or miss this season. Hard to trust a team like that laying points.
– OKLAHOMA STATE was better than perhaps anyone expected this season, going 9-4 and earning a trip to the Big 12 title game. Now the Cowboys are installed as underdogs to the team that could easily be described as the most disinterested in the bowl season, at least if you judge that based upon the size of players opting out of games and/or in the transfer portal. That is the current state of Texas A&M football. The Aggies also have an interim coach here.
– OKLAHOMA was very good this season, going 10-2, coming off a rare six-win campaign in 2022. The Sooners scored 43.2 PPG this season and topped the 50-point mark five times. They were one of four teams to gain 500+ YPG. And yes, while QB Dillon Gabriel is in the transfer portal and not expected to play, this offense was much more than him. In fact, they ran for 182 YPG. My point is, one of the country’s better offenses, and teams overall for that matter, is an underdog to an up-and-coming Arizona team that hasn’t even been in a bowl game in six years. It doesn’t seem to me that OU is overlooking this game, and I feel they will be motivated by this line slight.
– FLORIDA STATE was the first Power 5 Conference team to go undefeated in the regular season, win its conference title game, yet be held out of the CFP. And all because of the presumption that it wasn’t the same team without its injured quarterback. Despite overtures from their head coach that they should find a way to stick it to the NCAA by boycotting the Orange Bowl, I believe the Seminoles will have a chip on their shoulder in this contest against two-time defending champ Georgia. And let’s be honest, what are the chances we get an interested, or even close to full-strength Bulldogs’ team in the game? The 14-point underdog line is just the tip of what looks like a motivation mountain for FSU.
– OREGON is a sizable double-digit favorite against an undefeated team in a New Year’s 6-level bowl game. How could this be? Well, the opponent is Liberty, and there is a very good reason that the Flamers have yet to lose in ’23. That being they didn’t play even a single formidable team all year long. Jacksonville State was the so-called best team they faced, with a SM Power Rating of 38. Oregon has a SM PR of 68. The Ducks are a whole different animal from what head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team has stepped on the field with. Oregon’s QB Bo Nix has taken enough interest in this game that he decided to play. That should tell you enough. I think the only way Oregon gets satisfaction here is by winning big, and there isn’t much Liberty can physically do about it.
– LSU played so many big games this season against some of the nation’s top teams that a letdown in the ReliaQuest Bowl game against Wisconsin might be a natural consequence. Well, a lot of people thought the same last year when the Tigers met up with Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. That game only wound up being a 63-7 rout by head coach Brian Kelly’s team. Now I’m not saying that the Badgers are in line for that kind of beatdown on January 1st, but even without QB Jayden Daniels playing, there is an obvious talent and execution disparity in these teams. Head coach Luke Fickell’s team was a disappointment this season, with its two most impressive wins coming over a pair of 6-6 teams. They topped the 25-point mark just once in the last eight games. LSU averaged 46.4 PPG. LSU is a double-digit favorite for a reason, even without Daniels. Sometimes winning decisively is the motivation.
5) Head coach experience is of ultra-importance
It’s not hard to understand, some coaches just fare better than others in using the extra preparation time involved in bowl games to get their game plans cemented and their teams physically and mentally ready to play. After all, these are the key ingredients to being a successful coach, almost as important as navigating the transfer portal nowadays, unfortunately. With all of the extras involved with bowl games, the importance of coaching is magnified. In preparation for last year’s bowl season, I dedicated myself to taking a closer look at the coaching situations in bowl games. I was ecstatic to uncover some truly golden betting nuggets regarding first-time bowl coaches and experience differences in bowl games among coaches. Regarding the latter:
Since 2015, or the last seven bowl seasons, head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of number of bowl games coached over the opponent have gone 159-118 SU and 157-117-3 ATS (57.3%)!
These are the bowl games for 2023-24 and the number of bowl games experience for each coach. They are listed in order of experience disparity. There are 37 games in which there is a bowl game coaching experience difference. If the game is not listed, the bowl game coaching experience is EVEN.
- W KENTUCKY – Tyson Helton (4) vs. OLD DOMINION – Ricky Rahne (1) Edge – W KENTUCKY by 3
- JACKSONVILLE STATE – Rich Rodriguez (11) vs. LA LAFAYETTE – Michael Desormeaux (1) Edge – JACKSONVILLE STATE by 10
- MIAMI (OH) – Chuck Martin (4) vs. APPALACHIAN ST – Shawn Clark (3) Edge – MIAMI (OH) by 1
- NEW MEXICO STATE – Jerry Kill (4) vs. FRESNO STATE – Jeff Tedford (11) Edge – FRESNO STATE by 7
- UCLA – Chip Kelly (5) vs. BOISE STATE – Spencer Danielson (0) Edge – UCLA by 5
- CALIFORNIA – Justin Wilcox (2) vs. TEXAS TECH – Joey McGuire (1) Edge – CALIFORNIA by 1
- GA SOUTHERN – Clay Helton (6) vs. OHIO U – Tim Albin (1) Edge – GA SOUTHERN by 5
- TX-SAN ANTONIO – Jeff Traylor (3) vs. MARSHALL – Charles Huff (2) Edge – TX-SAN ANTONIO by 1
- UCF – Gus Malzahn (9) vs. GEORGIA TECH – Brent Key (0) Edge – UCF by 9
- ARKANSAS STATE – Butch Jones (6) vs. N ILLINOIS – Thomas Hammock(1) Edge – ARKANSAS STATE by 5
- JAMES MADISON – Damian Wroblewski (0) vs. AIR FORCE – Troy Calhoun (12) Edge – AIR FORCE by 12
- GEORGIA ST – Shawn Elliott (4) vs. UTAH STATE – Blake Anderson (8) Edge – UTAH STATE by 4
- S ALABAMA – Kane Wommack (1) vs. E MICHIGAN – Chris Creighton (5) Edge – E MICHIGAN by 4
- UTAH – Kyle Whittingham (15) vs. NORTHWESTERN – David Braun (0) Edge – UTAH by 15
- COASTAL CAROLINA – Tim Beck (0) vs. SAN JOSE STATE – Brent Brennan (2) Edge – SAN JOSE STATE by 2
- BOWLING GREEN – Scot Loeffler (1) vs. MINNESOTA – PJ Fleck (7) Edge – MINNESOTA by 6
- TEXAS STATE UNIV – GJ Kinne (0) vs. RICE – Mike Bloomgren (1) Edge – RICE by 1
- KANSAS – Lance Leipold (4) vs. UNLV – Barry Odom (2) Edge – KANSAS by 2
- NORTH CAROLINA – Mack Brown (24) vs. WEST VIRGINIA – Neal Brown (5) Edge – NORTH CAROLINA by 19
- LOUISVILLE – Jeff Brohm (6) vs. USC – Lincoln Riley (5) Edge – LOUISVILLE by 1
- TEXAS A&M – Elijah Robinson (0) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE – Mike Gundy (17) Edge – OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
- SMU – Rhett Lashlee (1) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE – Jeff Hafley (0) Edge – SMU by 1
- RUTGERS – Greg Schiano (7) vs. MIAMI (FL) – Mario Cristobal (6) Edge – RUTGERS by 1
- NC STATE – Dan Doeren (2) vs. KANSAS STATE – Chris Klieman (3) Edge – KANSAS ST by 1
- ARIZONA – Jedd Fisch (0) vs. OKLAHOMA – Brent Venables (1) Edge – OKLAHOMA by 1
- CLEMSON – Dabo Swinney (18) vs. KENTUCKY – Mark Stoops (7) Edge – CLEMSON by 11
- NOTRE DAME – Marcus Freeman (2) vs. OREGON ST – Kefense Hynson (0) Edge – NOTRE DAME by 2
- MEMPHIS – Ryan Silverfield (3) vs. IOWA STATE – Matt Campbell (9) Edge – IOWA STATE by 6
- MISSOURI – Eliah Drinkwitz (2) vs. OHIO STATE – Ryan Day (5) Edge – OHIO STATE by 3
- OLE MISS – Lane Kiffin (6) vs. PENN STATE – James Franklin (11) Edge – PENN STATE by 5
- AUBURN – Hugh Freeze (7) vs. MARYLAND – Michael Locksley (2) Edge – AUBURN by 5
- GEORGIA – Kirby Smart (10) vs. FLORIDA STATE – Mike Norvell (4) Edge – GEORGIA by 6
- WISCONSIN – Luke Fickell (6) vs. LSU – Brian Kelly (14) Edge – LSU by 8
- IOWA – Kirk Ferentz (19) vs. TENNESSEE – Josh Heupel (5) Edge – IOWA by 14
- LIBERTY – Jamey Chadwell (2) vs. OREGON – Dan Lanning (1) Edge – LIBERTY by 1
- ALABAMA – Nick Saban (30) vs. MICHIGAN – Jim Harbaugh (9) Edge – ALABAMA by 21
- TEXAS – Steve Sarkisian (5) vs. WASHINGTON – Kalen DeBoer (1) Edge – TEXAS by 4
Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 37-20 SU and 39-17-1 ATS (69.6%). Looking at this year’s lineup, here are the eight games that qualify:
- JACKSONVILLE STATE – Rich Rodriguez (11) vs. LA LAFAYETTE – Michael Desormeaux (1) Edge – JACKSONVILLE STATE by 10
- JAMES MADISON – Damian Wroblewski (0) vs. AIR FORCE – Troy Calhoun (12) Edge – AIR FORCE by 12
- UTAH – Kyle Whittingham (15) vs. NORTHWESTERN – David Braun (0) Edge – UTAH by 15
- NORTH CAROLINA – Mack Brown (24) vs. WEST VIRGINIA – Neal Brown (5) Edge – NORTH CAROLINA by 19
- TEXAS A&M – Elijah Robinson (0) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE – Mike Gundy (17) Edge – OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
- CLEMSON – Dabo Swinney (18) vs. KENTUCKY – Mark Stoops (7) Edge – CLEMSON by 11
- IOWA – Kirk Ferentz (19) vs. TENNESSEE – Josh Heupel (5) Edge – IOWA by 14
- ALABAMA – Nick Saban (30) vs. MICHIGAN – Kim Harbaugh (9) Edge – ALABAMA by 21
First-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 33-51 SU and 32-51-1 ATS (38.6%) vs. non-first-year coaches! These are the nine bowl games involving first-time head coaches in the 2023 lineup:
- UCLA – Chip Kelly (5) vs. BOISE ST – Spencer Danielson (0) Edge – UCLA by 5
- UCF – Gus Malzahn (9) vs. GEORGIA TECH – Brent Key (0) Edge – UCF by 9
- JAMES MADISON – Damian Wroblewski (0) vs. AIR FORCE – Troy Calhoun (12) Edge – AIR FORCE by 12
- UTAH – Kyle Whittingham (15) vs. NORTHWESTERN – David Braun (0) Edge – UTAH by 15
- COASTAL CAROLINA – Tim Beck (0) vs. SAN JOSE STATE – Brent Brennan (2) Edge – SAN JOSE ST by 2
- TEXAS STATE UNIV – GJ Kinne (0) vs. RICE – Mike Bloomgren (1) Edge – RICE by 1
- TEXAS A&M – Elijah Robinson (0) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE – Mike Gundy (17) Edge – OKLAHOMA ST by 17
- ARIZONA – Jedd Fisch (0) vs. OKLAHOMA – Brent Venables (1) Edge – OKLAHOMA by 1
- NOTRE DAME – Marcus Freeman (2) vs. OREGON STATE – Kefense Hynson (0)
- Edge – NOTRE DAME by 2
More on the rookie head coaches, when matched up against an opposing coach that has been in at least 10 bowl games, the rookie record over the last eight years slips to an abysmal 7-17 SU and 5-19 ATS (20.8%)! Obviously, these three games will need to be considered solely by that angle:
- JAMES MADISON – Damian Wroblewski (0) vs. AIR FORCE – Troy Calhoun (12) Edge – AIR FORCE by 12
- UTAH – Kyle Whittingham (15) vs. NORTHWESTERN – David Braun (0) Edge – UTAH by 15
- TEXAS A&M – Elijah Robinson (0) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE – Mike Gundy (17) Edge – OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
Finally, it is in games that are expected to be tight that the coaching difference really stands out, as first-time bowl coaches are just 14-24 SU and 12-24-2 ATS (33.3%) over the last eight seasons in games with lines in the +4.5 to -4.5 range. These are the games that qualify on this powerful angle. Keep an eye on the line moves, however for final qualification, as three games I cited last year eventually slipped out of the necessary line range:
- UCLA – Chip Kelly (5) vs. BOISE STATE – Spencer Danielson (0) Edge – UCLA by 5
- UCF – Gus Malzahn (9) vs. GEORGIA TECH – Brent Key (0) Edge – UCF by 9
- JAMES MADISON – Damian Wroblewski (0) vs. AIR FORCE – Troy Calhoun (12) Edge – AIR FORCE by 12
- TEXAS A&M – Elijah Robinson (0) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE – Mike Gundy (17) Edge – OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
- ARIZONA – Jedd Fisch (0) vs. OKLAHOMA – Brent Venables (1) Edge – OKLAHOMA by 1
Having found these potent new angles, I feel the coaching analysis is close to complete. However, I’m sure there are readers out there who are going to want to know which coaches have fared best or worst in recent bowl games.
As usual, the coaches whose teams perform better in bowl games are much longer than those who don’t. Otherwise, they probably wouldn’t be coaching still. Here’s a quick bullet point list of the success stories:
- Wyoming’s Craig Bohl has gone 3-2 in bowl games with a 4-0-1 ATS mark
- Louisville’s Jeff Brohm was 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with six Overs in bowl games with Western Kentucky and Purdue, games producing over 83 PPG on average
- Troy Calhoun’s (Air Force) teams have gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 bowl games
- Kirk Ferentz (Iowa): Has a record of 13-6-1 ATS overall in bowl games, including 4-0-1 ATS in the last five
- Minnesota’s PJ Fleck is on a four-game outright bowl winning streak, with his teams going 3-1 ATS in those games
- Hugh Freeze (Auburn) owns a 6-1 SU and ATS bowl game record while at his two prior schools
- Butch Jones (Arkansas State) has seen his teams win four straight bowl games outright and ATS
- Chuck Martin’s Miami (OH) teams are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in bowl games
- Greg Schiano (Rutgers) has a 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record in bowl games in two stints with Rutgers
- Kirby Smart (Georgia): 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS career bowl game mark
Now, the underperformers:
- Toledo’s Jason Candle is on a five-game ATS bowl losing skid, but his team did get a first outright win last year over Liberty
- Jim Harbaugh (Michigan): Six straight outright and ATS losses for Wolverines
- Clay Helton (Georgia Southern): 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in bowl games with USC and GSU
- Mike Norvell (Florida State) has yet to win a bowl game ATS (1-3 SU) in four previous tries
- Rich Rodriguez (Jacksonville State) is on a 1-6 ATS skid as a bowl game head coach
- Once formidable Kyle Whittingham (Utah) has lost four straight bowl games (1-3 ATS) after going 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS prior
Notable totals trends with head coaches
- Jeff Brohm (Louisville) was 6-0 Over the total in bowl games with Western Kentucky & Purdue, games producing 83 PPG on average
- Iowa State’s Matt Campbell has seen his teams go Under the total in their last six bowl games
- Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) has a totals record of 5-1 Under in bowl games
- In 11 career bowl games coached with two schools, James Franklin (Penn State) owns a 9-2 Over the total mark
- Seven of the last nine OSU bowl games under head coach Mike Gundy have gone Under the total
- The last four bowl games involving a Butch Jones (Arkansas State) coached team went Over the total
- Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) has a 5-0 Under the total bowl game record since 2012
- Chuck Martin owns a 4-0 Under the total bowl game record while with Miami (OH)
- Jacksonville State’s Rich Rodriguez’s last nine bowl games went Over the total
While this might be understating the obvious, the coach factor is certainly one that has to be given consideration when wagering bowl games, and in many cases, it’s not the media-driven storylines that prevail.
6) Regional or Home Field Advantage
Typically, in the bowl season, travel logistics can play a factor for teams & fans. It all affects how a game plays out. Over the course of the last 22 seasons, 33 bowl games have been played at one of the teams’ home fields. The host teams are 18-15 SU and ATS in those games. In 2023, after three consecutive seasons without a team playing on its home field, we finally have one again, and that team is Memphis, playing in the Liberty Bowl as a sizeable underdog versus Iowa State.
The advantage that isn’t always as glaring, and therefore often overlooked, is a regional advantage. There are many examples of teams playing bowl games in their home state, perhaps less than three hours from their campus. The chances for that team to feel as if they are the home team by rallying their fans to the cause are much greater than the opponent, who, along with its fans, has to endure more rigorous travel to get to a bowl game.
The examples of the latter are many-fold. Unfortunately, the degree of advantage for the “regional home” teams in bowl games has diminished a bit in recent years, and as a result, this upcoming set of games could be the last season that I continue to track and/or rely on this as a motivational factor. In fact, over the last four years, I have categorized 26 different games that had a significant regional field advantage. Those teams went 12-14 ATS, and that level of mediocrity has put a dent into a strong betting angle that was 25-15 ATS prior. In all now, in the last 73 games, these teams’ record on my ledger is 39-34 ATS (53.4%), still profitable, mind you, but sinking and not really at the level I expect from my bowl preparations.
You will find games like this on every year’s bowl card, as organizers due this to increase attendance figures and enhance the experience for the travelers. The trouble for odds makers is that this home-field edge is difficult to quantify, and as a result, most bowl games not at a specific home field are treated as neutral games. Therefore, this can be an easy spot for bettors to pick up at least a point or two of value on a line, with nothing else factored in.
The list is a little longer than usual for this year’s games, so we’ll see how it affects the performance of factor #6. Some of the more distinct advantages would include Memphis, New Mexico State, UCLA, South Alabama, and Boston College. Here’s a look at the matchups that would qualify as regional or home-field advantage games on the 2023-24 bowl board:
- LA Lafayette (Regional) vs. Jacksonville State in New Orleans Bowl
- New Mexico State (Regional) vs. Fresno State in New Mexico Bowl
- UCLA (Regional) vs. Boise State in LA Bowl
- UCF (Regional) vs. Georgia Tech in Gasparilla Bowl
- Troy (Regional) vs. Duke in Birmingham Bowl
- South Alabama (Regional) vs. Eastern Michigan in 68 Ventures Bowl
- North Carolina (Regional) vs. West Virginia in Duke’s Mayo Bowl
- USC (Regional) vs. Louisville in Holiday Bowl
- Texas A&M (Regional) vs. Oklahoma State in Texas Bowl
- Boston College (Regional) vs. SMU in Fenway Bowl
- Rutgers (Regional) vs. Miami (FL) in Pinstripe Bowl
- Memphis (HOME) vs. Iowa State in Liberty Bowl
7) Summary of Season
The new factor I added to the mix back in 2019 was called Summary of Season. Quite simply, it is analyzing whether a team under- or over-performed expectations for the season. The thought being that teams that have played better than expected are typically more galvanized than those that haven’t. This has to be an obvious factor, though. For instance, if Team A was picked third in its conference and finished second, that isn’t a truly obvious outperform situation. However, if a team was picked first and finished fourth or picked last and reached a bowl game, those are more dramatic situations.
Here are some teams that did much better or worse than expected or performed far differently from last season:
Better than expected (teams I cited last year were 10-6-1 6-5 ATS after 17-13-1 ATS in 2019-2021)
LIBERTY – Took advantage of the first season under head coach Jamey Chadwell and first in Conference USA play by going undefeated overall, earning Group of 5’s NY6 bowl bid against mighty Oregon in Fiesta Bowl.
TEXAS STATE – Utilized transfer portal incredibly well and jumped from 4-8 to 7-5 in one season, including a season-opening upset of Baylor as a 26.5-point underdog.
UNLV – Under first year in head coach Barry Odom’s tenure, UNLV posted nine wins, its most as a program since 1984, and earned a home Mountain West title game appearance.
MIAMI (OH) – Despite a season-ending injury to QB Brett Gabbert on October 21st, the RedHawks won their final five games to finish 11-2, including the MAC title contest.