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Saturday night's UFC 306 will be headlined by the highly anticipated bantamweight title bout between Merab Dvalishvili and the reigning champ, Sean O'Malley, in a battle of styles.
Our O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili prediction takes a firm stance in the striker vs. wrestler debate, and we're siding with the relentless Georgian cardio machine.
Can Dvalishvili repeatedly close the distance across five rounds and avoid getting caught too many times by O'Malley? Or will the champ use his massive height and reach advantage to put together his patented combinations in a striking clinic?
It all goes down at the Sphere in Las Vegas, with the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. ET. Be sure to check out our full look at the UFC 306 odds for the rest of the fights on this stacked card.
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction & best bet
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline (+110 via Betway) ???
- My best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision (+175 via Betway) ???
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili fight analysis
This is as classic of a stylistic battle as it gets.
O'Malley, one of the most talented strikers in the UFC, lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute, absorbing only 3.52 in that time. He's long and rangy, and he uses his reach effectively.
The American is doing his best to try to become the next Conor McGregor, and a win over Dvalishvili would go a long way in that quest.
However, O'Malley is up against perhaps the most relentless fighter in the promotion on Saturday night. Dvalishvili ave rages nearly 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, and he also manages 4.5 significant strikes per minute of his own.
Additionally, Dvalishvili absorbs even fewer strikes per minute than O'Malley, which will help him in this fight.
The Georgian has perhaps the best cardio in the UFC, and I think he'll drag O'Malley into the deepest of waters on Saturday night and be too much for the reigning champion to handle.
And new.
Prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline (+110 via Betway) | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili best bet
Of Dvalishvili's professional MMA 17 wins, 13 have been by decision. I don't think he has the physical tools or skill set to finish O'Malley, but he possesses the perfect combination of wrestling and cardio to dethrone the champion on points.
The moral of the story when it comes to this fight is that I think both these men will have a hard time finishing the other. Therefore, I naturally also like the fight to go the distance (-110 via Betway).
Additionally, thanks to his big advantage when it comes to his cardio, I'd bet on Dvalishvili to land more significant strikes in Round 5 (-110 via Betway).
But the best bet of all is, of course, Dvalishvili to win by decision. Not only do I think it's the most likely result, but we're also getting great +175 odds for it to happen.
A win ning $10 wager would result in $17.50 in profit.
Best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision (+175 via Betway) | Implied probability: 36.36%
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds
Odds via Betway as of Saturday.
| O'Malley | Method of victory | Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| -138 | Win outright | +110 |
| +130 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +700 |
| +1800 | Win by submission | +2000 |
| +400 | Win by decision | +175 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
| O'Malley | Dvalishvili | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 33 |
| 5-11 | Height | 5-6 |
| 135 | Weight | 134 |
| 72 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 18-1 | Record | 17-4 |
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili fight info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Sphere, Las Vegas
- How to watch: PPV
- Favorite: O'Malley (-138 via Betway)
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