Can Geno Smith continue to be a late-bloomer while thriving with the Seattle Seahawks? Let's look ahead at their season in our Seahawks betting preview based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Seattle Seahawks walked away from the 2024 NFL Draft with some impressive talent capable of contributing immediately. They also reeled in a handful of key free agents, and the Seahawks generally acted all offseason like a team in a weak division capable of building off a 9-8 season and playoff appearance.
But still, the entire 2023 campaign seems to teeter on this question for the Seahawks: Which version of Geno Smith will we see?
We'll examine that question and more in our 2023 Seattle Seahawks betting preview based on the odds from our
best NFL betting sites as part of our 2023 NFL betting guide (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Seahawks betting preview 2023
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet | |
| Over | 8.5 (-165) | 8.5 (-142) | 8.5 (-149) | 9 (-105) | 8.5 (-150) |
| Under | 8.5 (+140) | 8.5 (+116 | 8.5 (+125) | 9 (-115) | 8.5 (-115) |
The weakness of their division alone and the uncertainty around the NFC could get the Seahawks close to this total.
They play in a division with a team in the Arizona Cardinals that could have a stench close to the 2008 Detroit Lions. Their Cardinals' desired result this season is the 2024 first overall pick.
Elsewhere in the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams could begin to rebound, but that club is still far removed from its championship peak.
Which all means the Seahawks are well-positioned to rack up wins within the division. That's especially true after improving their defense following the addition of linebacker Devin Bush, and bringing back linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive tackle Jarran Reed. They'll help to improve a leaky defense that ranked 24th while giving up 23.6 points per game. Defending the run w as a significant sore spot that could now turn into a strength after Seattle allowed 150.2 rushing yards per game in 2022 (30th).
However, everything comes back to Smith, the NFL's 2022 Comeback Player of the Year. Smith spent years in poor offensive systems while getting little support. Still, his completion percentage during his early days with the New York Jets left plenty to be desired, with Smith bottoming out at 55.8 as a rookie during a season when he threw 21 interceptions.
In 2022 both of those figures swung dramatically, with Smith tossing only 11 interceptions with 30 touchdown passes (his previous career high was 13) while completing 69.8% of his attempts. The real Smith likely lies somewhere between those two extremes, and we already saw the seeds of some regression toward the end of 2022 when he averaged only 5.9 yards per throw over Seattle's final four contests.
Th ere are enough positive factors beyond Smith's control to cash the Over on this total, and he'll get another key weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But it might not be comfortable, and this bet isn't a ride worth taking for the squeamish.
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +3000 | +3500 | +3000 | +4000 | +3000 |
| To win NFC | +1100 | +1300 | +1200 | +1600 | N/A |
| To win NFC West | +195 | +200 | -195 | -210 | +190 |
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There are two truly intimidating teams in the NFC. Then there are a whole lot of teams with promise and uncertainty in equal doses.
The Seahawks fall into the latter group, and maybe even the back half of it. But given the weakness of the conference and teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers about to take a step back, there will be plenty of opportunities for a skilled squad like the Seahawks to grind out wins and sneak in the back door to the playoffs, just as they did in 2022.
However, from there they would very likely be matched up against the Eagles or 49ers again, and without the benefit of home field that's meant so much to Seattle historically. The Seahawks hold a 114-55 a ll-time record at Lumen Field, and they're 10-2 during the postseason.
Metcalf took a step back in this category during 2022 while his connection with Smith developed. And yet he still didn't miss hitting the Over on this total by much while finishing with six touchdowns. That came after two straight seasons with double-digit touchdown catches (10 in 2020 and 12 in 2021).
Much more importantly, Metcalf's scoring stumble came during a season when he was highly productive in all other areas, finishing with 1,048 yards and 90 catches, with the latter a career high.
He received a wildly high target volume, with Metcalf's 141 targets well ahead of the 117 given to Tyler Lockett. He's the clear first red-zone option too, as Metcalf finished second leaguewide in 2022 with 27 red-zone targets for a whopping 60% of the Seahawks' target volume. That all points to positive re gression coming after Metcalf hauled in just nine red-zone catches despite his heavy workload.
There's the face plant brand of regression, and there's the more gentle and gradual kind. Smith is likely to take the latter route, which is why it's key to make this play at DraftKings if you're thinking he'll only wobble and not crash.
Some of our other best sports betting sites like Caesars and FanDuel are offering Smith's passing yards total at 3800.5. The extra 100 yards through DraftKings would be a more modest decrease of 482 yards from 2022.
The forthcoming brilliance of Smith-Njigba and Metcalf's brute force ways will keep Smith afloat. But the Seahawks just invested a second-round pick in running back Zach Charbonnet, and they could be set for several blowout games just within their own division.
Seattle barely skirted under this mark in 2022 while finishing with 407 points. And that came during Smith's first year in the offense as he built chemistry with his receivers. It was also before the team plugged in Smith-Njigba, who missed much of 2022 with Ohio State due to a hamstring injury, but before that he went off for 1,606 yards in 2021.
Making the puddle jump from Seattle's 2022 point production to cash the Over here shouldn't be difficult, especially given the weak competition that lies ahead.
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