In a rematch of the 2023 national championship, the UConn Huskies play the San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16, as we offer our San Diego State vs. UConn picks and best bet based on the best March Madness odds.
The No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs (26-10) are seeking revenge against the No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (33-3) in the Sweet 16 after losing to them in the 2023 NCAA Tournament final. The Huskies are an 11-point favorite (-110) across our best sports betting sites in a game set for a 7:39 p.m. ET tip at TD Garden in Boston on Thursday.
No team has looked better than UConn this season, and the Huskies remain atop the board in both the March Madness odds and Final Four odds after recording a 39-point victory over Stetson, and a 17-point triumph over Northwestern in the first two rounds. While this clash is a rematch of last year's final, the Aztecs have been shakie r this season and UAB almost upset them in the first round. This could make for a tough matchup against a UConn team that may be even better than its championship-winning squad.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our best San Diego State vs. UConn picks and best bets (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Don't forget to check out our Sweet 16 odds and betting lines and our March Madness survivor picks.
San Diego State (5) vs. UConn (1) best bets: East Region
Best odds: +125 via DraftKings
Donovan Clingan has become a full-fledged star as a sophomore after coming off the bench as a freshman in 2023 for UConn's championship team. A likely lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Clingan is playing the best basketball of his career right now after injur ies slowed him earlier in the season.
Dubbed “Cling Kong” for his gargantuan size (7-foot-2, 265 pounds), Clingan has been a complete game-wrecker for UConn through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Not only has Clingan been a menace as a scorer and rebounder, but he's been a dominant rim-protector. His eight-block game against Northwestern propelled him to the top of the March Madness MVP odds.
He should be able to continue swatting shots at a ridiculous rate against San Diego State. The Aztecs' offense runs through its forward Jaedon LeDee. With head coach Brian Dutcher's outfit lacking along the perimeter in 2023, getting the ball to LeDee down low has been the most productive way for San Diego State to score. That means plenty of opportunities for Clingan to contest shots around the rim.
The Huskies' big man has blocked at least two shots in 22 games during 2023-24, including in seven of his last eight. He's averaging 3.4 blocks per game during that eight-game stretch, which is why the value at DraftKings is incredible. At +125 odds, a $10 wager would lead to a $12.50 profit.
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Best odd s: -110 via bet365
It's going to be a tough game for LeDee against UConn. The Huskies are eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according KenPom, and they boast a massive size advantage in the paint with Clingan. LeDee has been terrific in the NCAA Tournament thus far, but playing against the Huskies is like playing an entirely different sport compared to going up against UAB or Yale.
While LeDee is averaging 21.5 points per game in 2023-24, there's a dropoff against tougher competition. He averaged nearly two fewer points per game (19.8) in Mountain West play, and LeDee never played a defense that ranks in the top 20 of adjusted efficiency.
UConn ranks eighth in the country in field-goal percentage allowed with Clingan anchoring its defense (39.5%), and sixth in 2-point percentage (43.5%). Of LeDee's 12.9 field goals per game, 11.7 come inside the arc, where Clingan will be waiting for him. Even if LeDee can get away from Cling Kong, the Huskies are deep with six players ranking among the top 30 in the Big East in DBPR, according to EvanMiya.
At -110 there's a 52.38% implied probability that LeDee finishes with Under 20.5 points, according to our odds calculator. If he does, the odds at bet365 would lead to a $9.09 profit.
San Diego State vs. UConn odds
San Diego State vs. UConn spread & Over/Under analysis
The reigning national champion Huskies opened as 9.5-point favorites, but they've quickly seen the line move further in their direction. Our best sports betting apps are now featuring UConn favored by 10.5 to 11 points, the largest spread of the Sweet 16. The Huskies are 24-12 against the spread this season, while San Diego State is just 14-20.
With these teams boasting two of the best defen ses in the country, the game total opened at 135.5 and hasn't budged. UConn is 19-16-1 to the Under this season and has hit it in six of its last seven games. The Aztecs have been a similarly solid Under bet lately, cashing it in nine of their last 13.
San Diego State vs. UConn game info
- When: Thursday, March 28
- Tip-off: 7:39 p.m. ET
- Where: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
- How to watch: TBS
San Diego State-UConn prediction made Tuesday at 12:25 p.m. ET.
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