The undefeated Liberty Flames play host to the winless Sam Houston Bearkats, as we make our Sam Houston-Liberty prediction based on the best college football odds.
The Bearkats nearly got their first victory of the season last week, falling 35-28 in overtime to Jacksonville State. The game marked the first time Sam Houston scored double-digit points so far this season.
Meanwhile, Liberty has dominated its opponents. The Flames are averaging 40 points and 501 yards per game, and they've won every contest by at least 10 points. Liberty has outgained its opponents by nearly 200 yards per game.
Here is our best Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction: Week 6
Editor's note: This spread has now moved to -20.5.
How are the Bearkats going to keep up with the Flames? Liberty is allowing 18.5 points per game this season, while the Bearkats are averaging less than 10. Additionally, the Bearkats' offense is averaging just 219.5 yards per game. Both their points and yards per game are second-worst in college football.
On the other side, the Flames' offense has looked phenomenal this season. The competition hasn't been stiff, but they've still put up video game-like numbers on their way to convincing victories. Last week, they finally played a team with a record above .500 in FIU and put together a complete team performance on their way to a 38-6 win.
Another huge advantage for the Flames is the turnover battle. They're tied for the third-best turnover margin in college football, while the Bearkats have a negative turnover margin and are tied for 95th. Flames' quarterback Kaidon Salter has 11 touchdown passes and just one interception this season.
This is a large spread that's part of our college football predictions for Week 6, especially when you consider that the Bearkats held Air Force and BYU to a combined 27 points. However, over the last two weeks, the Bearkats' defense has collapsed. The Flames should put up 30 in their fifth straight game. If they do, there is very little chance the Bearkats score enough to cover.
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Sam Houston vs. Liberty best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18.5 | -18.5 | -18.5 | -18.5 | -18.5 |
| -109 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
DraftKings is offering a slightly better price than all of our other best sports betting sites, so it's the place to wager. However, keep an eye on this game. With how bad the Bearkats have been, there should be considerable movement as kickoff approaches. We'd take this up to -20.5, especially if you can get a price of +100 or better.
Sam Houston vs. Liberty odds
Sam Houston vs. Liberty odds analysis
The Flames opened as 17.5-point favorites, and the spread has grown to 18.5. It's hard to imagine this spread moving in favor of the Bearkats at the best sports betting apps considering how they've played this season. Don't be surprised if this hits 20 before kickoff.
The total opened at 45.5, and it has not moved. It's hard to envision where this number is going to land. The Flames' offense has been great, but the Bearkats' has been so bad that the Flames may need to do all of the scoring themselves. If this moves at all, it won't be more than one point in either direction.
Sam Houston vs. Liberty game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 5 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 61 degrees, 5-mph winds, 15% chance of precipitation
Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction made 10/03/2023 at 11:59 a.m. ET
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