This Thursday Night Football matchup is essentially a playoff game. Both the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams (-4) are battling for the last couple of wild-card spots in the NFC and this game could serve as a tie-breaker. The Saints are on a 2-game win streak, but over the Giants and Panthers. The Rams have won 4 of their last 5 with the solo loss coming in OT to Baltimore. Let’s get into my favorite playe r prop bet for TNF, but make sure you also read our full Saints vs Rams predictions.
Matthew Stafford under 34.5 pass attempts (-108)
The resurgence of the Rams offense and a large part of this 4-1 streak has been the result of a very successful run game, spearheaded by Kyren Williams. Since his return, Stafford has gone over this mark in 2 of 4 games — one being an overtime shootout with the Baltimore Ravens and the other being a 36-19 drubbing of the Cleveland Browns. I don't foresee this game being anywhere near the action of those two.
The Saints’ offense has averaged 68 plays per game on the road this season, which is the 5th-most in the NFL. They rely heavily on the run of late, with the 3rd-highest rush-to-pass split in the NFL over the last 3 games. Alvin Kamara/Jamaal Williams/Taysom Hill are all getting rotated in. I say all that to highlight that I believe McVay will rely heavily on Kyren Williams this Thursday and be successful in his endeavor. Williams’ 18.5 rush attempts line is his highest all season and an 89.5 rushing yards line would indicate he's in for a big workload. On a short week with two successful run games, I can see this one being less of a shootout and more like the grind we're used to seeing in primetime.