The New Orleans Saints (2-1-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Saints vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this game with 53.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 53.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rondale Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 28% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Saints
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | +450 |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | +500 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Saints
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | -140 |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | -140 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Saints
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) |
29.5 -110 | 29.5 -120 |
| Chris Olave (NO) |
71.5 -115 | 71.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Saints
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) |
72.5 -115 | 72.5 -115 |
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+3.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Saints are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 44.19% ROI
- Saints are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Saints are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Falcons are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -21.52% ROI
- Falcons are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are 7-1 (.875) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Falcons have intercepted 10 passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Saints are winless (0-5) when converting less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .323.
The Saints were 4-8 (.333) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Saints are 8-1 (.889) when leading at the end of the first half since the 2022 season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .766.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are 2-9 (.182) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 7th-worst in NFL. The Saints have intercepted 23 passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Falcons are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Falcons are 1-9 (.100) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2022 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .221.
Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have averaged 0.43 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 0.21 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.