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The New York Yankees took Game 1 of the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals by the slimmest of margins, with Alex Verdugo driving in the go-ahead run in the seventh inning en route to the 6-5 victory.
The night could have been a lot easier, though, if Aaron Judge didn't produce another postseason stinker.
- Following the tight Game 1 win, the Yankees send left-hander Carlos Rodon to the mound when first pitch is thrown at 7:38 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium
- Opposing him is fellow southpaw Cole Ragans, who was brilliant in Kansas City's wild-card game before dealing with some calf cramping
- Ragans was the far superior pitcher this season, as he'll likely finish in the top three in AL Cy Young voting, while Rodon was wildly inconsistent throughout the campaign
- The Royals starter was actually much more effective against right-handed hitters than lefties, and Yankees slugger Judge struck out at a slightly higher rate against southpaws
Our Royals vs. Yankees prediction looks at whether Judge is on fraud watch due to his relative struggles in the playoffs, or if he can lead his World Series odds favorites to a 2-0 series lead.
Be sure to also check out our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction for Monday, as well as Tuesday's Phillies vs. Mets prediction.
Royals vs. Yankees predictions: Game 2
- Moneyline pick: Royals moneyline (+130 via bet365)
- Aaron Judge player prop bet: Over 1.5 strikeouts (+140 via bet365)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Royals vs. Yankees?
First pitch: 7:38 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium
Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Im plied probability: 43.48%
The Royals did well to get to Gerrit Cole in Game 1, but it was the Yankees' bullpen – and the shaky Clay Holmes, in particular – that silenced the Kansas City bats.
Meanwhile, the road team was at a disadvantage after playing in the Wild Card Series, as it was forced to send Michael Wacha to the mound after using Seth Lugo and Ragans against the Baltimore Orioles.
However, Kansas City trots out its ace in Game 2, and that should help it even up the series in New York.
Ragans was terrific in 2024 after serving as a post-trade deadline revelation for the Royals last year. He recorded a 3.14 ERA while managing 10.77 strikeouts per nine innings. He went six ridiculous frames against the Orioles, giving up four hits and no runs while striking out eight.
Rodon, on the other hand, is a bit like a box of chocolates. He finished the campaign wi th a solid 3.96 ERA, but the veteran gave up home runs at the fourth-highest rate among qualified pitchers and allowed four-plus earned runs in seven of his 32 starts this year.
The Royals weren't very good against left-handed pitching this campaign. But Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez maintained solid numbers against southpaws, and they can certainly do enough to lead Kansas City to victory.
A few of our best sports betting sites offer this price for the Royals moneyline, with BetMGM providing bettors with the worst price at +125.
We're banking on Rodon putting up an inconsistent performance, and Ragans being strong again in a low-scoring affair.
See the rest of our MLB picks.
My Royals vs. Yankees best bet
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I really wanted to make this pick Giancarlo Stanton to record the slowest sprint speed in playoff history. Unfortunately, none of our best sports betting apps are offering that market.
Therefore, we'll fade a different Yankees slugger while putting Judge on fraud watch.
Judge was truly stinky in Game 1, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. The first K came with runners on second and third, the second came with runners on first and second, and third was at least with the bases empty (silver linings, guys).
It's interesting that he's trading among the World Series MVP odds favorites, because Judge has never been very good in the playoffs.
For his career, Judge does boast 13 postseason home runs in 203 plate appearances. But he's also recorded 69 punchouts for a whopping 34% K rate. Judge has walked in only 12.8% of his plate appearances too, showing he perhaps forces the issue in October.
Judge's career postseason slash line of .206/.307/.451 is unlikely to improve on Monday against Ragans and Co. Rather than betting his Under total bases prop at a worse price – around +125 – and risking Judge manages a hit, we'll instead take him to strike out more than once.
Best odds: +140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 41.67%
Royals vs. Yankees odds & Game 2 info
- When: Monday, Oct. 7
- First pitch: 7:38 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: Yankees (-149 via BetMGM)
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