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The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees meet for the first time in the playoffs since 1980, with Kansas City looking to upset its second straight AL East opponent in this Division Series. The Royals enter as a long shot in the World Series odds.
- The Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 postseason series dating back to 1985
- Kansas City's 106 losses last year are the most from a team that then made the playoffs the following campaign
- The Yankees are getting the shortest odds to win the AL pennant
The Yankees are significant favorites to begin this ALDS based on our MLB odds. But our Royals vs. Yankees prediction finds better value in a different line ahead of this matchup.
Royals vs. Yankees predictions: Game 1
- Run-line pick: Royals +1.5 (-126 via FanDuel) ???
- Gerrit Cole player prop bet: Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-175 via BetMGM) ?????
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Royals vs. Yankees?
First pitch: 6:38 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium
Best odds: -126 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 55.75%
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The Royals just held a Baltimore Orioles offense that finished the regular season fourth in runs to a mere one run over 18 innings. They'll look to do the same against a Yankees lineup that scored an AL-best 815 runs, but one that was more effective on the road this season.
New York was six games better on the road (50-31) than at home this season (44-37). The key to beating the Yankees is to limit the damage that the top of the order can do, and veteran Michael Wacha is capable of executing.
Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge, who sits second in the World Series MVP odds, are a combined 1-for-34 in their careers against Wacha, with the latter striking out 11 times across 18 at-bats.
The only player in the Yankees' lineup who has done real damage against Wacha is Anthony Rizzo (.393 batting average, three home runs). But he's fighting through the pain of two fractured fingers suffered dur ing the last weekend of the season.
New York won an MLB-best 55 games against teams over .500. But Wacha gave up a career-best 32.6% hard-hit rate, and his OPS allowed the last two seasons were each his best since 2019. I expect him to keep Kansas City in the game.
The Yankees have covered the run line in just 42.3% of their games as a home favorite this year, while the Royals boast a 34-20 run-line record (63%) as road underdogs. Thus, New York's -205 moneyline odds at DraftKings aren't justifiable, and we're getting great value with -126 odds to back Kansas City at +1.5 runs.
See the rest of our MLB picks.
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All of our best sports betting sites are in unison wi th these -175 odds for Gerrit Cole to allow two or fewer earned runs. And while that may seem like a steep price to pay, this wager comes with five stars, as Cole has allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven of his previous nine starts.
Cole has given up a slash line of .236/.259/.347 against current Royals hitters. And he's been neutralizing Kansas City's two most significant threats. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are a combined 3-for-22 against him with one home run.
Cole is in fine form after throwing just 95 innings this year. He should be locked and loaded to begin this postseason strong, just as he's been while posting a 6-0 record and 1.71 ERA in seven career ALDS starts.
Best odds: -175 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 63.64%
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Royals vs. Yankees odds & game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 5
- First pitch: 6:38 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- How to watch: TBS/Max
- Favorite: Yankees (-200 via BetMGM)
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