The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-190) on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 48-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 54-61 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 away games (+11.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.55 Units / 79% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+19.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 43 games at home (+16.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+15.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+13.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+20.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 away games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 113 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 78 games (+9.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 82% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 55-63 against the Run Line (-18.85 Units / -12.24% ROI).
- 48-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.3 Units / -8.97% ROI
- 58-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -2.78% ROI
- 56-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -6.14% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 54-61 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -6.95% ROI).
- 60-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.2% ROI
- 55-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 51-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -7.39% ROI
Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .524 (22-for-42) against Daniel Lynch on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .362 (17 GB hits out of 47 GBs) against Daniel Lynch with runners on base this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .296 (378 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (28/85) against Daniel Lynch on breaking pitches this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Tyler Mahle: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 30% (27 SO in 89 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (99/313) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 41% (65 SO in 157 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (53/187) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.