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The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles begin their AL Wild Card series from Camden Yards on Tuesday afternoon.
- The Royals made the playoffs after losing 100-plus games last year
- The Orioles were a better on the road than at home this season
- These teams have the fourth and fifth-best odds to win the AL pennant
Our Royals vs. Orioles prediction makes the case for Kansas City, the road underdogs at our best MLB betting sites, to steal Game 1 while adding to Baltimore's postseason struggles.
The Orioles have the sixth-shortest World Series odds entering the wild-card series.
Royals vs. Orioles predictions: Game 1
- Moneyline pick: Royals (+136 via FanDuel)
- Cole Ragans player prop bet: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145 via Caesars)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Royals vs. Orioles?
First pitch: 4 p.m. ET, Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Best odds: +136 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.37%
Baltimore acquired ace Corbin Burnes specifically to win games like these, but all the pressure will be on the Orioles in Game 1 as they try to snap an eight-game playoff losing streak.
The Royals finished five games worse than the Orioles, but their expected win-loss record was one game superior. The Orioles have struggled for quite some time now, as they have not had longer than a three-game winning streak since late June, and are just 34-38 since July 8, worse than all but five AL teams in that span.
Baltimore is just 3-5 in Burnes' last eight starts, and if this turns into a battle of bullpens, it is advantage Royals, as Kansas City's relievers rank 11th in WAR while Baltimore's pen ranks 27th in ERA over the second half of the season.
Kansas City's implied probability of winning is as high as 44.64% based on DraftKings' +124 odds, so I am headed to FanDuel for the best value, where a $10 winning wager would net $13.60 in profits.
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The Orioles lineup is the healthiest it has been in quite some time, thanks to the recent returns of Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle from the IL.
However, this is still a Baltimore squad that strikes out at a high clip, with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) in home games against southpaws over the second half of the season.
Cole Ragans finished fifth in the majors with 223 strikeouts and enters having recorded seven-plus strikeouts in six of his previous nine starts. I expect him to use his devastating changeup, which induces a 47.8% whiff rate, to keep Orioles hitters off balance.
Best odds: -145 via Caesars | Impl ied probability: 59.18%
Royals vs. Orioles odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
- First pitch: 4 p.m. ET
- Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Favorite: Orioles (-155 via BetMGM)
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