The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 63-93 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 away games (+18.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 23 away games (+17.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+14.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
| Brady Singer | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -6.38% ROI).
- 63-93 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -10.21% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -3.09% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -5.92% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 82-74 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 2.54% ROI).
- 88-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.5 Units / 10% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.6 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 1.13% ROI
Brady Singer: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer has thrown his slider 36% of the time (915/2,520) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total SL; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 24% (282/1,184) against Brady Singer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (121/226) against Brady Singer this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 60% of Brady Singer’s pitches in the zone (1,451/2,398) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 55% (703/1,272) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Aaron Civale’s pitches (566/1,018) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 61% — seventh Percentile.
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 60% (615/1,018) in two strike counts since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (30/95) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.