The Kansas City Royals (+140) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Royals are 85-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 74-84 ATS.
Royals vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 16-9, 3.03 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 8-5, 2.04 ERA
Royals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Royals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 49 games (+21.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+17.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 away games (+15.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 42 games (+23.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 38 games (+20.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+15.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 away games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+6.85 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 144 games (+37.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games (+4.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 87-73 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 1.51% ROI).
- 85-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 1.83% ROI
- 69-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.05 Units / -13.83% ROI
- 85-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.4 Units / 4.77% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 74-84 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -7.19% ROI).
- 87-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.4 Units / -7.91% ROI
- 58-94 when betting on the total runs Over for -44.25 Units / -25.67% ROI
- 94-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +30 Units / 17.1% ROI
Braves vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) |
0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) |
0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) |
0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (ATL) |
0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) |
0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yuli Gurriel (KC) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) |
0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) |
0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) |
0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) |
0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Michael Massey (KC) |
0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) |
0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) |
4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (134/665) against Seth Lugo this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown breaking pitches 46% of the time (662/1,433) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2022 season (10th best among qualified RPs)– 90th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a just .296 SLG versus the top of the order (second best)– 98th Percentile and .427 versus the bottom of the order this season (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 14th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez has an ERA of 1.21 (67.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (9-for-99) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .145 (24-for-166) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (37-for-225) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 99th Percentile.