Rockies-Mets prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, May 6

Having finally snapped their losing skid with a Friday night win, the New York Mets look for a series win against the Colorado Rockies in a Saturday matinee at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Austin Gomber (2-4, 7.57 ERA) looks to continue his strong recent form for Colorado while New York counters with righty Tylor Megill (3-1, 4.11).

The Mets enter as heavy -210 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Rockies are +180 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Rockies

Out: SP Noah Davis (elbow), RP Dinelson Lamet (back)

Mets

Out: RP Brooks Raley (hamstring), OF Tim Locastro (back), SP Carlos Carrasco (elbow), C Omar Narvaez (calf)

Austin Gomber vs. Tylor Megill

Gomber got off to a horrendous start to 2023, allowing 22 runs over his first 16.1 innings. He's righted the ship recently, though, with five shutout innings at the Cleveland Guardians followed by six innings of one-run ball at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The lefty boasts a very solid changeup/curveball combination, but often has a hard time letting them shine due to a fastball that catches way to much of the plate:

At just 90-91 mph, that's not going to work, and hitter's have teed off to the tune of a .683 slugging percentage this season.

Megill is largely the opposite, using his 94-95 mph heater over 55 percent of the time to set up a slider to righties and a changeup to lefties. He's been a perfectly fine back-end starter for New York amid injuries to Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco and Jose Quintana, going at least five innings and allowing three or fewer runs in all but one of his starts so far this year.

I don't expect the Rockies – a team without many of the left-handed bats that have given Megill fits this year – to contribute much to the total today, so this will come down to how much the Mets can get to Gomber. I think they'll scratch out a few runs, but New York has been far worse against lefties than righties this year, which has me leaning towards the under.

Pick: Under 8.5

Megill will at least hold Colorado to two or three runs, which should be more than enough for a Mets team that needs to start banking wins before they hit a brutal stretch of schedule starting next week.

Pick: Mets

  
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