Entering this tournament, we have a good feeling about who has the best chance of getting to Houston and winning it all.
It’s a top-seeded team.
Since 1985, a No.1 seed has captured the national championship 24 times, No. 2 seeds have five, and four for No. 3 seed winners. Those bettors holding tickets on Houston, Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, UCLA, Arizona, Baylor, Texas, Gonzaga, should have varying degrees of optimism heading into tournament play.
From an investment standpoint, these are the teams worthy of most of the media attention post-bracket reveal, not the beloved longshots or sleepers that seem to dominate conversations. Names like VCU, George Mason, Loyola Chicago and friends will be mentioned prominently during tournament coverage; remember though, none of them cashed a national championship ticket.
Since 1998, only the 2014 Connecticut Huskies (No. 7 seed) went on to win a national championship after beginning the tournament seeded higher than the 3-line. Odds wise, following that surprise UConn win, the average number of the eventual national champion entering the first round of the tournament is just over 8-1.
For the most part, those teams seeded five and above are more “roadblocks”—squads that can derail the top contenders—than viable tournament-winning options. Let’s analyze the recently released brackets from the perspective of the top contenders and examine what teams they should fear the most.
Obviously, as the tournament dwindles down to the Elite 8, all teams, regardless of seeding, become both contenders AND roadblocks. Evaluating the problematic areas for the contenders should assist futures bettors in gauging the value of their in-pocket plays and whether a contingency plan is needed.
This can also help bettors judge the lines for daily plays. Based on seedings, odds and recent performance, here are the top contenders for a national championship along with opponents they lost to in the regular season, shared similarities of those opponents and other teams in their bracket that fit the profile.
Houston ( 550)
No.1 seed MidwestLosses: Alabama, Temple,
Shared similarities: Not much comparison between the contending Crimson Tide and the lowly Owls. The Temple game was likely an aberration since it came in late January when the Cougars were probably losing concentration in AAC games. Still, these two losses show that a defensive-minded team has a chance against KenPom’s top team in the country if Houston has a poor shooting night (33% from 2-pt range against the Owls). The Tide’s pressure and defensive depth were the difference as they pulled away from Houston late en route to the December 10th win.
Who to fear most: A team that can play at a fast enough pace to get the score into the mid-70s and above. In Houston’s best wins of the year—against Oregon, Saint Mary’s, Virginia and Memphis (2)—the Cougars kept the game in their favored range of the mid-60s. When an opponent eclipsed 70 points, Houston lost to Bama and played closer-than-expected tilts against USF and UCF.
Both possible second-round opponents can score—Iowa averages over 80 points per game and Auburn close to 73 points per contest. Neither will likely beat Houston but can keep it closer than expected. A faster-than-expected game could cause Houston issues if Marcus Sasser isn’t up to speed.
Looking ahead, Indiana is a major issue in a Sweet 16 matchup against the Cougars. The Hoosiers have Jalen Hood-Schifino who can score against Sasser and Jamal Shead and will have the best player on the court in Trayce Jackson-Davis.
Texas has fewer roadblocks than top-seeded Houston in this bracket.
For those bettors who got Houston at its peak price of 10-1, consider adding a Texas Final Four bet for some insurance.
Alabama ( 700)
No.1 seed SouthLosses: Connecticut, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M.
Shared similarities: The way to beat Alabama is to limit its scoring, not outscoring them. Gonzaga beat the Tide in a 100-90 race in Birmingham, otherwise, their other losses came when they were held to 69 points or lower. They averaged 82.8 points per game over the season.
Who to fear most: Media members from all different outlets (sports, news, etc.) who will now use the Brandon Miller story as fertile territory to generate interest, debate and clicks as they cover Alabama’s tournament run. Miller’s legal issues became known in late February and the topic is still a focal point for every game. Having a favorable crowd that traveled to Nashville to support the Tide in the SEC tournament helped ease some of the distractions. That is going to change when the NCAA Tournament becomes a national story and Miller will face even more of a hostile environment.
On the court, the teams who can keep Alabama below 70 points are San Diego St. and Virginia. Either one can keep the Tide out of the Elite 8 by using a defensive style that stays consistent throughout the game and can limit Bama from coming back after a slow start—a characteristic it has shown of late.
Kansas ( 750)
No.1 seed WestLosses: Tennessee, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, Iowa State, Texas,
Shared similarities: Other than a late November loss to the Volunteers, the other strikes against the Jayhawks were from the talented and deep Big 12 roster. Obviously, those teams have familiarity with Kansas and three of the four conference losses came away from Lawrence. Outside the Big 12 and the Vols, Bill Self’s group was spotless against the other big boys it faced (Duke, N.C. State, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana). In all of the Jayhawks’ losses – except an OT contest against K-State, they were held below 69 points. Overall, when Kansas failed to get to at least 70 points, its record was 7-5.
Who to fear most: The only other Big 12 team in the West is TCU and the Frogs are on the bottom end. For a team that wants to repeat by scoring, there is plenty to fear in the Sweet 16 round. Either Saint Mary’s or UConn can keep the game in the 60s. Saint Mary’s against Kansas is an opportunity for the dog to cover. The Huskies can absolutely win the game outright. This is not a great draw for Kansas futures bettors.
Purdue ( 900)
No.1 seed EastLosses: Rutgers, Indiana (2), Northwestern, Maryland,
Shared similarities: Physical Big Ten teams not fazed by the presence of 7-4 Zach Edey. Not surprisingly, all of those victorious teams have a roster within the top 80 for height according to KenPom. A deeper dive into those box scores shows in the losses, Purdue was kept to or below the .327 3Pt shooting percentage it had for the season. Edey is going to score his points, in the losses, guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer were kept in check. The current late-season version of Purdue (four losses came in February) is not the same as the team who dominated the rankings in December and January.
Who to fear most: The calendar. Purdue won the Big Ten tournament (barely) but Edey took a pounding. The physicality of the Big Ten and its lingering effects is well documented. The last team to win the conference tournament and then earn a national championship was Michigan State in 2000.
Matchup wise, Purdue can face trouble from a team that guards the perimeter well. Other than its first-round opponent, every other team in the top half of the East fits that profile. A second-round game will be against either Memphis or Florida Atlantic, both have a Top 40 KenPom defense. If it is Memphis, the Tigers will have the best perimeter player in the game with Kendric Davis.
This top-seeded team could fail to make it out of the Sweet 16 since it's a game likely against Duke (who should get past depleted Tennessee). The Blue Devils have strong defensive guards and a 7-footer of their own with Kyle Filipowski.
There are major roadblocks ahead of Purdue even getting to the Final Four. If a bettor has a future play on Purdue, consider pairing it with Duke since that ticket can come with a smaller investment because of the Blue Devils’ relatively high odds.
UCLA ( 1200)
No.2 seed WestLosses: Illinois, Baylor, Arizona, USC,
Shared similarities: The four losses were a pair of two road-game losing streaks. Three of the four losses came when they gave up a point total of 77 or higher. A big difference from the 60 points per game the KenPom second-best defensive team averaged allowing over the season.
Who to fear most: The athletic trainer delivering even more bad news. Late-season injuries to defensive stalwarts Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona create great concern for UCLA’s title hopes. Clark appears out and without news on Bona availability, this team is hard to gauge moving forward.
Overall talent should get UCLA two wins to start out the tournament but then Gonzaga should be awaiting them. The Zags have the offense that can move through Mick Cronin’s bruised defense. If this matchup does happen, the Zags could be listed as the favorite.
Questions around their depth make any game past the second round a roadblock for the Bruins. That current 12-1 price is less than desirable.
Texas ( 1400)
No.2 MidwestLosses: Illinois, Kansas St., Iowa St., Tennessee, Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU
Shared similarities: Losses away from Austin. Of the Longhorns’ seven losses, six came on the road or a neutral court.
Who to fear most: The Horns don’t seem to have any major roadblocks until the Elite 8 in a likely game against Houston. They have the lethal combination of a KenPom top 20 offense and defense. Xavier has a 3-seed next to its name but not the depth to keep up with Texas.
The Texas tournament win total should be an ancillary bet to handicap when the line is released. There appear to be at least three ahead of them.
Arizona ( 1600)
No.2 seed South