Trends are cyclical in all sports. When a team or multiple teams start to have success with something new, other teams around the league try to emulate it in some fashion.
“Moneyball” in MLB is a really good example. “Moreyball,” which favors 3-pointers and layups over mid-range jumpers, is the best example in the modern NBA.
At some point, though, things can shift back. Maybe not all of the way, but at least to a degree.
In the NFL this season, for example, you might have noticed that teams running the ball effectively are having a lot of success. Defenses are hyper-focused on stopping the pass. NFL rules favor the offense and, more specifically, the passing offense. Offenses have a lot of run-pass option concepts in the playbook as well. And tight ends are more of a receiving threat downfield than we’ve seen before.
As a result, NFL defenses are playing more Cover-2, Cover-3, Quarters and other forms of zone in hopes of keeping everything in front of them and avoiding big plays. Defenses are also prioritizing pressure with the front four on the defensive line to leave as many guys in coverage as possible. With all of that, the running game is making a bit of a comeback.
How does that relate to the NBA? Well, while we’ve seen a seismic shift to 3-point shooting over the last few years, we’re now seeing some teams shift back the other way and put more of an emphasis on the mid-range game.
“3DO”
In last year’s NBA Betting Guide, I wrote about the concept of “3DO” — the “3” is for 3-pointers, the “D” is for defending the 3 (Defensive Rating) and the “O” is for offensive rebounding. The 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) has continued to rise season after season and that was true again in 2021-22, as 39.9% of field-goal attempts were 3s.
Those three statistical areas are all really important. Teams that take a lot of 3s and have success making them are usually pretty good. Teams that play good defense usually make the playoffs and have the best chance of playing for a championship when they get there. Finally, offensive rebounds are extra possessions that usually lead to points.
The trend to prioritize 3-point shooting is not a secret. A lot of teams are doing it, but not all of them. Others have found something new and that is what I want to focus on for this year’s preseason deep dive.