The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Reds vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 60-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 78-77 ATS.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 55 games at home (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games at home (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 72-83 against the Run Line (-19.1 Units / -9.99% ROI).
- 60-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -11.57% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.5 Units / -6.71% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -2.82% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 78-77 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -3.08% ROI).
- 58-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.49% ROI
- 71-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.75 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 75-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -1.64% ROI
Luis Cessa: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has a strike rate of just 59% (182/309) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has allowed an OBP of .305 (141 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .231 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .373 (22-for-59) against Luis Cessa with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Luis Cessa has allowed a slugging percentage of .511 (70 Total Bases / 137 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .359 — fifth Percentile.
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OPS of 1.013 (187 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .721 — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .490 (50 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .306 — second Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 11% (20 SO in 187 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .535 (189 Total Bases / 353 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .387 — second Percentile.< /p>